What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate
Leader sits at 82% across 18 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
AIPAC
Outcomes
18
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
Data Center
Spread
6pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jul 17, 2026
15 days
Venue
Kalshi
18 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: OnlyFans
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-ONLY
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: AIPAC
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-AIPA
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Teen Takeover
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-TEEN
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Data Center
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-DATA
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Fraud
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-FRAU
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Israel / Israeli
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-ISRA
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Event does not qualify
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-NQE
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Property Tax
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-PROP
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Socialist / Socialism
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-SOCI
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Healthcare
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-HEAL
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Benjamin / Netanyahu
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-BENJ
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: DeSantis
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-DESA
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Cuba / Cuban
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-CUBA
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Communist / Communism
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-COMM
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Trump (3+ times)
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-TRUM
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Abort / Aborted / Abortion
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-ABOR
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: DEI / Woke
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-DEI
What will James Fishback say during The Future of Florida | Live Governor Debate?: Trans / Transgender
KXDEBATEMENTION-26JUL02-TRAN
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 83% likelihood that James Fishback will mention AIPAC during The Future of Florida gubernatorial debate, compared to lower probabilities for topics like data centers (75%), teen policy (76%), property taxes (74%), and OnlyFans (42%). The high probability for AIPAC reflects either strong historical precedent that Fishback discusses this topic in debate settings, or widespread expectation based on his recent public statements and policy positions. The outcome resolves when the debate occurs and participants' remarks are documented. Movement would depend on any recent statements Fishback makes before the event that signal shifting priorities, or changes in what moderators have indicated they'll address. The divergence between the top outcomes suggests moderate confidence rather than certainty—AIPAC leads but alternatives command meaningful probability weight, indicating genuine uncertainty about debate content.
- ›James Fishback's recent public statements or social media activity emphasizing AIPAC-related issues versus other policy areas
- ›The debate moderator's stated agenda and which topics are listed as focus areas for questions
- ›Historical patterns in Fishback's previous debate appearances or public forums regarding topic frequency
- ›Trading volume concentration ($248 24h on AIPAC versus lower volumes on alternatives) indicating whether this reflects conviction or thin-market pricing
- ›The debate's scheduled date and any confirmed participant roster, which would affect likelihood Fishback attends and participates
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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