Will Output Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $5/MTok in 2026
Leader sits at 20% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
$8/MTok or below
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
$7/MTok or below
Spread
10pp
contested
24h volume
$4
thin orderbook
Closes
Apr 1, 2027
280 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Output Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $
Will Output Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $8/MTok in 2026?: $8/MTok or below
KXGEMINI35OY-27-NA-8
Will Output Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $7/MTok in 2026?: $7/MTok or below
KXGEMINI35OY-27-NA-7
Will Output Token Price (Paid Tier) of Google Gemini 3.5 Flash be at or below $6/MTok in 2026?: $6/MTok or below
KXGEMINI35OY-27-NA-6
Analysis
This market estimates a 33% chance that Google will price Gemini 3.5 Flash output tokens at $8/million tokens or below by end of 2026. The contract structure shows tight clustering around the $5–$8 range, suggesting meaningful uncertainty about pricing strategy rather than extreme outcomes. Pricing will depend primarily on Google's competitive positioning versus Claude, GPT-4, and other large language models, as well as whether demand pressures push prices up or cost reductions enable cuts. A key driver is whether Google maintains aggressive pricing to gain market share or raises prices as the model becomes production-critical for enterprise customers. The biggest uncertainty resolver will be Google's official pricing announcements and any shifts tied to new model releases or competitive moves in Q3–Q4 2026.
- ›Current Gemini 3.5 Flash pricing as baseline reference: published rates show whether the market is pricing improvement or degradation from today's level
- ›Competitive pricing by Anthropic (Claude), OpenAI (GPT-4o), and open-source alternatives, since enterprise buyers actively arbitrage token costs across providers
- ›Google's historical token pricing trajectory: whether recent trends show consistent reductions or price stability after initial launch discounts
- ›Announced major model updates or tiers by Google in 2026: new model releases or tier restructuring could reset pricing for 3.5 Flash specifically
- ›Volume commitments and enterprise contract discounts: whether bulk-user pricing distorts the 'public' per-token rate captured in market data
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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