Will Jaafar Jackson be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 42% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
42%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$14K
20 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2027
441 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
17 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will The Odyssey be on the list of nominees for Best
Will The Odyssey be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards?: The Odyssey
KXGGNOM-DRA26-ODY
Will The Odyssey be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards?: The Odyssey
KXGGNOM-SCR26-ODY
Cluster 2
Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best
Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards?: La Bola Negra
KXGGNOM-SCR26-BOL
Will La Bola Negra be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards?: La Bola Negra
KXGGNOM-DRA26-BOL
Cluster 3
Will Wild Horse Nine be on the list of nominees for Best
Will Wild Horse Nine be on the list of nominees for Best Motion Picture - Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards?: Wild Horse Nine
KXGGNOM-COM26-WIL
Will Wild Horse Nine be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards?: Wild Horse Nine
KXGGNOM-SCR26-WIL
Cluster 4
Will Christopher Nolan be on the list of nominees for Best Director at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 5
Will Julianne Moore be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 6
Will Andrew Scott be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 7
Will John Malkovich be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 8
Will Sandra Hüller be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 9
Will Anne Hathaway be on the list of nominees for Best Supporting Actress in a Motion Picture at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 10
Will Zendaya be on the list of nominees for Best Actress in a Motion Picture – Musical or Comedy at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 11
Will Matt Damon be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 12
Will Jaafar Jackson be on the list of nominees for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 13
Will All of a Sudden be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 14
Will The Debut be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 15
Will Fjord be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Will Fjord be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards?: Fjord
KXGGNOM-SCR26-FJO
Cluster 16
Will Possible Love be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Cluster 17
Will Elsinore be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards
Will Elsinore be on the list of nominees for Best Screenplay at the 84th Golden Globe Awards?: Elsinore
KXGGNOM-SCR26-ELS
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that actor Jaafar Jackson receives a nomination for Best Actor in a Motion Picture – Drama at the 84th Golden Globe Awards, currently estimated at 23%. The estimate reflects uncertainty about Jackson's film performance and competitive positioning against other actors for the 2026 awards cycle. The main drivers of this probability are the critical and audience reception of his upcoming film projects, his previous nomination history, and the overall strength of the competing actor pool. The Golden Globe nomination announcement, scheduled for early 2027, will definitively resolve this market. Until then, the probability may shift based on film festival screenings, critic reviews, and industry sentiment regarding his performances in the relevant eligibility window.
- ›Jaafar Jackson's filmography during the 2026 eligibility period and the critical reception of his lead dramatic roles
- ›His track record of previous Golden Globe nominations and industry recognition in comparable categories
- ›The competitive field of other actors vying for the five available nominations in the Best Actor Drama category
- ›The influence of film festival performances and critical consensus from major review outlets on the nomination voting body
- ›The timing and visibility of any major film releases featuring Jackson in lead dramatic roles before the January 2027 nomination announcement
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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