2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album
Leader sits at 73% across 5 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Fall-Off
Outcomes
5
winner-take-all
Runner-up
72¢
Don't Be Dumb
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$60
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
493 days
Venue
Kalshi
5 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album
2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: OCTANE
KXGRAMMYNOMBRA-69-OCT
2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: ICEMAN
KXGRAMMYNOMBRA-69-DRA
2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: The Fall-Off
KXGRAMMYNOMBRA-69-FAL
2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: Don't Be Dumb
KXGRAMMYNOMBRA-69-DON
2026 Grammy nominees for Best Rap Album?: Bully
KXGRAMMYNOMBRA-69-BUL
Analysis
This represents the market's assessment that 'The Fall-Off' will be included in the 2026 Grammy Awards Best Rap Album category nominees. Currently priced at 77 cents, it significantly leads rivals like 'Don't Be Dumb' (73 cents) and 'OCTANE' (24 cents). The high probability reflects confidence in the album's commercial performance and critical reception relative to competitors. Market pricing could shift based on streaming metrics, critical reviews, and industry momentum for competing albums through the nomination period. The 2026 Grammy nomination announcement—scheduled for November 2025 according to typical Grammy timelines—serves as the resolution event. Until then, album releases, chart performance, and industry recognition will likely influence market sentiment around which projects secure spots in the final nominee pool.
- ›'The Fall-Off' maintains a 4-point pricing advantage over the second-place contender, suggesting market differentiation rather than consensus uncertainty
- ›Typical Grammy Best Rap Album fields include 5-8 nominees, meaning multiple albums from this contract set could be selected simultaneously, creating correlated rather than mutually exclusive outcomes
- ›24-hour trading volumes are modest ($4-$55 range), indicating limited liquidity and potential sensitivity to new information or concentrated positioning
- ›The album's commercial trajectory through mid-2026—streaming performance, radio play, and industry award nominations—will provide concrete data points before Grammy voting
- ›Grammy nomination voting typically closes in September-October of award year, creating a defined window for market-moving announcements or releases
What moved the line
- Jun 25The Fall-Off↓5pp79→74¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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