2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year
Leader sits at 84% across 9 bound outcomes, runner-up at 76%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Choosin' Texas
Outcomes
9
winner-take-all
Runner-up
76¢
I Just Might
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
407 days
Venue
Kalshi
9 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: The Fate of Ophelia
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-FAT
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-WHE
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: Man I Need
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-MAN
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: I Knew It, I Knew You
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-IKN
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: I Just Might
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-IJU
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: hate that i made you love me
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-HAT
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: drop dead
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-DRO
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: the cure
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-CUR
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: Choosin' Texas
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-CHO
Analysis
The Song of the Year category at the 2026 Grammy Awards will feature ten nominated songs determined by the Recording Academy's selection process. Current market pricing suggests 'The Fate of Ophelia' has approximately a 90% probability of being nominated, while 'drop dead' and 'Choosin' Texas' are priced in the 78-83% range. The probability reflects trader assessments based on available information about streaming performance, critical reception, and historical Grammy voting patterns. The Grammy Awards nomination announcement—scheduled for November 2026—will resolve this question definitively. Until then, market movement depends on factors including artist eligibility confirmation, final eligibility deadline compliance, and any updated industry metrics or awards precedents that might influence voting outcomes.
- ›Song eligibility must comply with Recording Academy submission deadlines and requirements; ineligible tracks would be disqualified regardless of market expectations
- ›Streaming volume and playlist placement data through the eligibility window directly correlates with Grammy voter awareness and nomination likelihood
- ›Historical Grammy voting patterns show variation between critical acclaim and commercial performance; songs with strong metrics in one dimension sometimes face headwinds in the other
- ›The Recording Academy's voting body composition can shift year-to-year, potentially changing which genres and styles receive nominations
- ›Nomination announcement in November 2026 will immediately resolve all uncertainty for the ten selected songs and eliminate all contracts
What moved the line
- Sep 18drop dead↑59pp16→75¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17The Fate of Ophelia↓37pp48→11¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17hate that i made you love me↑33pp20→53¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17the cure↑30pp22→52¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17WHERE IS MY HUSBAND!↑29pp21→50¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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