2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year
Leader sits at 90% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 83%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
The Fate of Ophelia
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
83¢
Man I Need
Spread
7pp
contested
24h volume
$12
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
494 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: Choosin' Texas
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-CHO
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: So Easy (To Fall In Love)
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-SOE
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: Man I Need
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-MAN
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: I Just Might
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-IJU
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: The Fate of Ophelia
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-FAT
2026 Grammy nominees for Song of the Year?: Aperture
KXGRAMMYNOMSOTY-69-APE
Analysis
This 92% probability indicates market participants assess a very high likelihood that 'The Fate of Ophelia' will be nominated for the 2026 Grammy Award for Record of the Year. The Grammy nominations announcement, scheduled for November 2026, represents the sole mechanism for resolving this outcome with certainty. Current trading volume on this contract ($83 in 24-hour volume) remains modest, suggesting limited active disagreement about the outcome. The high probability reflects either strong confidence in the track's eligibility and Grammy visibility, or relatively thin trading preventing significant price discovery. Factors supporting nomination include the song's apparent commercial or critical recognition, though the exact voting patterns of Recording Academy members remain inherently uncertain. Any major developments affecting the track's status—such as disqualification, re-categorization, or competing releases gaining prominence—could shift market expectations before nomination ballots close.
- ›'The Fate of Ophelia' must meet technical Grammy eligibility requirements (release date, format, copyright registration) with no disqualifications or disputes
- ›Recording Academy voters' familiarity with and preference for the track relative to other Record of the Year contenders in the final voting pool
- ›Comparative performance and industry momentum of competing songs in the same category during the August-October 2026 voting window
- ›Volume and depth of trading activity on this contract remain low ($83 24h volume), limiting confidence in price as a true reflection of distributed opinion
- ›The November 2026 Grammy nomination announcement date is the only definitive resolution event; no intermediate data points resolve partial uncertainty
What moved the line
- Jun 18Choosin' Texas↓3pp76→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23I Just Might↑3pp76→79¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24I Just Might↓3pp79→76¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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