How many Grand Slams will Jannik Sinner win in 2026
Leader sits at 53% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 24%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
2+ Grand Slam wins
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
24¢
2+ Grand Slam wins
Spread
29pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Sep 29, 2026
67 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
How many Grand Slams
Analysis
The market assigns a 75% probability that Jannik Sinner will win at least one Grand Slam in 2026, with a 29% probability he wins two or more. This reflects expectations about Sinner's competitive positioning relative to rivals like Carlos Alcaraz, who markets estimate has only a 10% chance of winning two Grand Slams this year. Sinner's current form, injury history, and draw luck at the four major tournaments drive the baseline probability upward, while consistency across hard courts and clay would be needed to sustain a two-title run. The remaining Grand Slam events in 2026—Wimbledon, US Open, and Australian Open—will directly resolve this outcome. Performance at each tournament, particularly Sinner's results on grass and hard courts where he has shown strength, will be the primary determinant of whether markets move toward the higher outcome or revert expectations downward.
- ›Sinner's injury-free status through remaining 2026 Grand Slams and tournament participation rates relative to historical baseline
- ›Head-to-head performance against Alcaraz and other top-5 competitors across hard court and clay draws at scheduled majors
- ›Sinner's seeding and draw placement at each remaining Grand Slam, which materially affects probability of tournament advancement
- ›Performance in warm-up events immediately preceding each major tournament as a leading indicator of form
- ›Changes in surface-specific win rates on grass and hard courts, where Sinner's previous strengths have concentrated
What moved the line
- Jul 172+ Grand Slam wins↓5pp22→17¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 172+ Grand Slam wins↓5pp60→55¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 192+ Grand Slam wins↓5pp57→52¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 222+ Grand Slam wins↑3pp21→24¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (53% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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