What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch
Leader sits at 37% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Pepas
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
Rockstar
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$4
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1224 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Despacito
KXGTA6SONGS-30-DES
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: XO Tour Llif3
KXGTA6SONGS-30-XOT
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Blinding Lights
KXGTA6SONGS-30-BLI
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Stay
KXGTA6SONGS-30-STA
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Sicko Mode
KXGTA6SONGS-30-SIC
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Shape of You
KXGTA6SONGS-30-SHA
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Rockstar
KXGTA6SONGS-30-ROC
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Pepas
KXGTA6SONGS-30-PEP
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Mo Bamba
KXGTA6SONGS-30-MOB
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Mask Off
KXGTA6SONGS-30-MAS
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Look at Me!
KXGTA6SONGS-30-LOO
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: God’s Plan
KXGTA6SONGS-30-GOD
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Bad and Boujee
KXGTA6SONGS-30-BAD
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: As It Was
KXGTA6SONGS-30-ASI
Analysis
This probability estimates the likelihood that 'Bad and Boujee' will appear on GTA 6's launch radio stations. The track leads a competitive field of pop and hip-hop songs, each priced between 21¢ and 44¢, suggesting traders view multiple songs as plausible inclusions. The market is driven primarily by Rockstar Games' historical tendency to license major hits from the past decade and the timing of GTA 6's expected fall 2025 release. Uncertainty centers on which specific catalog additions Rockstar will secure licensing agreements for, as soundtrack composition depends on negotiations with artists, labels, and music rights holders. The main resolution event occurs upon game launch when the complete radio tracklist becomes public. Current pricing reflects that 'Bad and Boujee' holds a narrow edge over runner-up songs, but no track commands overwhelming confidence.
- ›'Bad and Boujee' is a 2016 hit with demonstrated longevity; its inclusion would align with Rockstar's pattern of licensing established songs from 5-10 years prior
- ›GTA radio stations typically feature 50-100+ licensed tracks across multiple stations; the single-song probability depends heavily on total soundtrack size
- ›Licensing costs and label negotiations are private; unexpected disputes or budget constraints could shift which tracks make the final cut
- ›The song's price (44¢) is only 1¢ above runner-up, indicating marginal differentiation and suggesting high uncertainty among traders
- ›GTA 6 launch date confirmation and any pre-release soundtrack announcements would significantly compress probabilities on covered tracks
What moved the line
- Aug 19Mask Off↓13pp29→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20As It Was↓12pp28→16¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Pepas↓12pp33→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20XO Tour Llif3↓11pp29→18¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 19Sicko Mode↓11pp28→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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