What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch
Leader sits at 44% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Blinding Lights
Outcomes
14
winner-take-all
Runner-up
44¢
Despacito
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2030
1333 days
Venue
Kalshi
14 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Blinding Lights
KXGTA6SONGS-30-BLI
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Rockstar
KXGTA6SONGS-30-ROC
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Look at Me!
KXGTA6SONGS-30-LOO
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: XO Tour Llif3
KXGTA6SONGS-30-XOT
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Bad and Boujee
KXGTA6SONGS-30-BAD
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Mask Off
KXGTA6SONGS-30-MAS
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: God’s Plan
KXGTA6SONGS-30-GOD
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Mo Bamba
KXGTA6SONGS-30-MOB
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Sicko Mode
KXGTA6SONGS-30-SIC
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Pepas
KXGTA6SONGS-30-PEP
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Despacito
KXGTA6SONGS-30-DES
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Stay
KXGTA6SONGS-30-STA
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: As It Was
KXGTA6SONGS-30-ASI
What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch?: Shape of You
KXGTA6SONGS-30-SHA
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that specific song titles will be confirmed on Grand Theft Auto VI's in-game radio stations at the game's launch. The 34% probability suggests moderate uncertainty about which artists and tracks will appear in the soundtrack. Key factors influencing this level include Rockstar Games' historical pattern of licensing major artists for GTA soundtracks and the amount of information publicly confirmed before launch. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be Rockstar's official soundtrack announcement, typically released weeks before or at the September 2025 launch date. Currently, minimal details about the radio playlist have been publicly disclosed, which supports the moderate probability. Once the full track list releases, this prediction would move toward near-certainty or resolve completely based on whether the specified songs appear.
- ›Rockstar Games' track record of licensing major commercial artists for GTA radio stations, which typically includes 50-100+ songs per game
- ›The timing and specificity of Rockstar's official soundtrack announcements relative to launch, which historically occurs 2-8 weeks before release
- ›Current scarcity of publicly disclosed song titles for GTA VI radio, limiting analyst confidence in specific tracks appearing
- ›Historical precedent that certain mega-artists frequently appear on GTA soundtracks versus emerging or niche artists with lower licensing probability
- ›Whether the prediction references specific song titles versus general artist categories, affecting the baseline probability
What moved the line
- May 2Despacito↓6pp49→43¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Blinding Lights↑4pp44→48¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Pepas↑4pp34→38¢ · Kalshi
- May 6God’s Plan↑4pp36→40¢ · Kalshi
- May 8Blinding Lights↓3pp47→44¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.