SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all answer·14 source contracts·Kalshi 14·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2030 · 1286d

What songs will be on the GTA 6 radio at launch

Leader sits at 41% across 14 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

41%

Bad and Boujee

runner-up 40¢leader 41¢

Outcomes

14

winner-take-all

Runner-up

40¢

Rockstar

Spread

1pp

contested

24h volume

$127

thin orderbook

Closes

Jan 1, 2030

1286 days

Venue

Kalshi

14 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayBad and Boujee: 40% (26 days, 16 points)Bad and Boujee: 40% on 2026-06-24Rockstar: 39% (26 days, 25 points)Rockstar: 39% on 2026-06-24Pepas: 40% (26 days, 25 points)Pepas: 40% on 2026-06-24
Bad and Boujee40¢Rockstar39¢Pepas40¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 26d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This probability reflects the likelihood that specific song titles will be confirmed on Grand Theft Auto VI's in-game radio stations at the game's launch. The 34% probability suggests moderate uncertainty about which artists and tracks will appear in the soundtrack. Key factors influencing this level include Rockstar Games' historical pattern of licensing major artists for GTA soundtracks and the amount of information publicly confirmed before launch. The primary catalyst resolving this uncertainty will be Rockstar's official soundtrack announcement, typically released weeks before or at the September 2025 launch date. Currently, minimal details about the radio playlist have been publicly disclosed, which supports the moderate probability. Once the full track list releases, this prediction would move toward near-certainty or resolve completely based on whether the specified songs appear.

  • Rockstar Games' track record of licensing major commercial artists for GTA radio stations, which typically includes 50-100+ songs per game
  • The timing and specificity of Rockstar's official soundtrack announcements relative to launch, which historically occurs 2-8 weeks before release
  • Current scarcity of publicly disclosed song titles for GTA VI radio, limiting analyst confidence in specific tracks appearing
  • Historical precedent that certain mega-artists frequently appear on GTA soundtracks versus emerging or niche artists with lower licensing probability
  • Whether the prediction references specific song titles versus general artist categories, affecting the baseline probability

What moved the line

  • Jun 23Mo Bamba19pp3213¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 24Mo Bamba18pp1331¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 23Blinding Lights12pp4230¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 23Stay11pp2514¢ · Kalshi
  • Jun 24Stay10pp1424¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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