Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $1.13 by Dec 31
Leader sits at 75% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 60%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above $3.23
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
60¢
Above $3.38
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
132 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.23 by Dec 31?: Above $3.23
KXH100MAX-26DEC31-3.230
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.98 by Dec 31?: Above $3.98
KXH100MAX-26DEC31-3.980
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.83 by Dec 31?: Above $3.83
KXH100MAX-26DEC31-3.830
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.68 by Dec 31?: Above $3.68
KXH100MAX-26DEC31-3.680
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.53 by Dec 31?: Above $3.53
KXH100MAX-26DEC31-3.530
Will the H100 SXM compute per hour price be above $3.38 by Dec 31?: Above $3.38
KXH100MAX-26DEC31-3.380
Analysis
This contract estimates a 72% probability that NVIDIA H100 SXM GPU compute rental prices will exceed $2.03 per hour by year-end 2026. The pricing reflects market expectations about GPU supply dynamics and demand for high-end compute capacity. Upward pressure would come from sustained AI workload demand outpacing H100 availability, while downward pressure would result from increased supply (newer GPU generations, competing products) or softening enterprise demand. Key resolution points include quarterly cloud provider earnings announcements and any major AI infrastructure capacity expansions announced through December. The wide gap between the highest-probability outcome ($2.03) and lower thresholds ($1.13, $1.28) suggests traders expect meaningful price stability rather than collapse, though uncertainty increases sharply above $2.93 per hour.
- ›Current H100 rental pricing on major cloud platforms relative to the $2.03 threshold and pricing trends over the past 6-12 months
- ›Announced GPU supply increases from cloud providers (AWS, Azure, Google Cloud) and competitive alternatives (H200, L40S) entering the market through year-end
- ›Enterprise AI adoption trends and GPU utilization rates reported in earnings calls and infrastructure investment announcements
- ›Release schedules for NVIDIA's next-generation compute GPUs and their market availability and pricing
- ›Cryptocurrency mining and other compute-intensive workload demand fluctuations affecting spare capacity and pricing pressure
What moved the line
- Aug 17Above $3.53↓20pp46→26¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above $3.53↑15pp26→41¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14Above $3.68↑15pp8→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 18Above $3.68↑13pp15→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above $3.68↓12pp27→15¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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