Winner-take-all answer·7 source contracts·Kalshi 7·refreshed just now

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 600000000 in fiscal year 2026

Name: SimpleFunctions
Author: SimpleFunctions

Leader sits at 50% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 45%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

50%

Above 600 million

0¢runner-up 45¢leader 50¢

Outcomes

winner-take-all

Runner-up

45¢

Above 700 million

Spread

5pp

contested

24h volume

$1K

modest

Closes

—

not derived

Venue

Kalshi

7 bound

Open top contract Read answer

Source contractsPriceVolume

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 600000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 600 million50¢$0 Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 700000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 700 million45¢$200 Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 650000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 650 million45¢$0 Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 750000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 750 million21¢$800

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above

7 contracts$1K

OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 750000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 750 million

KXHARVARDFEDREV-26JUN30-A750000000

21¢—$800K→

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 700000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 700 million

KXHARVARDFEDREV-26JUN30-A700000000

45¢—$200K→

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 900000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 900 million

KXHARVARDFEDREV-26JUN30-A900000000

3¢—$0K→

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 850000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 850 million

KXHARVARDFEDREV-26JUN30-A850000000

3¢—$0K→

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 800000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 800 million

KXHARVARDFEDREV-26JUN30-A800000000

11¢—$0K→

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 650000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 650 million

KXHARVARDFEDREV-26JUN30-A650000000

45¢—$0K→

Will Harvard's federal sponsored revenue be above 600000000 in fiscal year 2026?: Above 600 million

KXHARVARDFEDREV-26JUN30-A600000000

50¢—$0K→

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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