Will the high temp in Chicago be <73° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 46% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 44%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
70° to 71°
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
44¢
69° or below
Spread
2pp
contested
24h volume
$13K
liquid
Closes
Jun 27, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the high temp in Chicago
Will the high temp in Chicago be <70° on Jun 26, 2026?: 69° or below
KXHIGHCHI-26JUN26-T70
Will the high temp in Chicago be 72-73° on Jun 26, 2026?: 72° to 73°
KXHIGHCHI-26JUN26-B72.5
Will the high temp in Chicago be 70-71° on Jun 26, 2026?: 70° to 71°
KXHIGHCHI-26JUN26-B70.5
Will the high temp in Chicago be 74-75° on Jun 26, 2026?: 74° to 75°
KXHIGHCHI-26JUN26-B74.5
Analysis
This contract asks whether Chicago's high temperature will remain below 73°F on April 21, 2026—currently priced at 35% probability, indicating markets view cooler outcomes as less likely than warmer ones. The distribution of contracts shows traders expect temperatures in the 74–75°F range most likely, with meaningful probability mass above 76°F and minimal probability below 70°F. The main drivers are Chicago's typical late-April weather patterns, which historically trend toward spring warming, and any developing weather systems that might suppress temperatures in the weeks leading up to April 21. The resolution date itself (April 21, 2026) will determine the exact outcome when the National Weather Service records the daily high temperature for Chicago.
- ›Chicago's April average high temperature is approximately 60–65°F, but the 21st falls in mid-spring when warm spikes are common; historical frequency of sub-73°F days in late April is necessary to assess baseline likelihood
- ›Current market pricing across six temperature bands shows 74–75°F as modal (most probable single outcome at 37¢), suggesting traders expect seasonal warming above the 73°F threshold
- ›Kalshi contract volumes and pricing spreads indicate active disagreement: cooler outcomes (<70°F) trade at 4¢ while warmer bands (76–77°F) trade at 13¢, reflecting uncertainty about late-April conditions
- ›No multi-month weather forecast has reliable skill at 11-month horizons; near-term atmospheric teleconnection indices (NAO, AO) and sea-surface temperatures would influence North American spring patterns but are not yet predictive at this lead time
- ›Resolution depends solely on recorded high temperature from NOAA/NWS Chicago station on April 21, 2026; no subjective interpretation or measurement ambiguity applies
What moved the line
- Jun 2669° or below↓15pp60→45¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2670° to 71°↑15pp21→36¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2672° to 73°↑3pp9→12¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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