Will the maximum temperature be 50-51° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 76% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 9%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
76° or below
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
9¢
77° to 78°
Spread
67pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$3K
modest
Closes
Jun 29, 2026
1 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum temperature
Analysis
This market estimates the chance that the maximum temperature on April 21, 2026 will fall between 50°F and 51°F at the tracked location. At 36%, this reflects moderate confidence but not a favorite outcome. The April 21 date is approximately 9.8 months away from today, so traders are working with long-range seasonal patterns and historical weather data rather than near-term forecasts. The estimate sits below other temperature ranges in the multi-outcome contract, suggesting cooler temperatures are less likely than readings in the 81–87°F range that dominate current trading volume. The key drivers are the seasonal baseline for late April at this location and variations in spring weather patterns—earlier warming trends would lower this probability, while cooler springs would increase it. Resolution depends on actual recorded temperature on April 21, 2026, making this contract highly sensitive to location-specific climate data.
- ›Historical April 21 high temperatures at this location establish the seasonal baseline—colder or warmer averages would shift this contract's probability
- ›Spring temperature anomalies in 2026 (earlier warming or delayed cold) would move this outcome up or down as the date approaches
- ›Trading volume concentration in 81–87°F ranges (combined ~41¢ implied probability) suggests market consensus favors warmer conditions over 50–51°F outcomes
- ›The 9.8-month forecast horizon limits near-term model precision; long-range ensemble forecasts from spring 2026 will tighten probability estimates
- ›Daily weather variance and tail-risk events (late freeze, arctic air) between now and April 21 will incrementally update traders' seasonal expectations
What moved the line
- Jun 2877° to 78°↑4pp5→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in climate
- Will Germany Ifo business climate for April 2026 be above 84.2last 89% · 3d
- Where will 2026 rank among the hottest years on record?: 3last 68% · 9d
- Will any month of 2026 be the hottest on recordlast 85% · 9d
- 2026 May 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 3rd hottestlast 96% · 17d
- 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lowerlast 97% · 47d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (76% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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