Will the maximum temperature be <63° on Apr 21, 2026

30-day trend

Analysis

This contract tracks whether the maximum temperature in a specific location will remain below 63°F on April 21, 2026. At 41% probability, markets are indicating this outcome is less likely than warmer alternatives, though still a meaningful possibility. The current pricing reflects expectations for late-spring weather patterns, where temperatures typically rise above this threshold in most regions. Key drivers of this probability include seasonal climatology for the location in question, any near-term weather system forecasts available at contract listing time, and the distribution of other temperature outcomes across the contract set. The resolution will depend on the actual recorded maximum temperature on April 21, 2026, which will be verified against official weather station data for the specified location. Uncertainty persists because seasonal forecasting at this timeframe remains inherently limited, and individual daily temperatures can deviate significantly from average conditions.

• ›The runner-up contract (<63°F) trades at 41%, while the leading contract (85-86°F) commands the same price, indicating broad disagreement about which temperature band is most likely
• ›No contract for extremely low temperatures (<63°F) appears in the top volume metrics, suggesting traders assign relatively low conviction to cold outcomes despite the 41% price
• ›April 21 falls in late spring for Northern Hemisphere locations, when temperatures typically climb above 63°F in temperate zones but remain cooler in high-altitude or northern regions
• ›The contract structure is multi-outcome winner-take-all, so pricing reflects relative belief across six discrete temperature bands rather than continuous probability distribution
• ›Resolution depends entirely on official recorded maximum temperature data for the specified location on April 21, 2026—no weather forecast issued today will remain reliable at that 10+ day horizon

What moved the line

• Jun 2594° or below↑13pp30→43¢ · Kalshi
• Jun 2597° to 98°↓8pp22→14¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds