Will the maximum temperature be <72° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 63% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 32%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
92° to 93°
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
32¢
94° to 95°
Spread
31pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum temperature be 9
Will the maximum temperature be 92-93° on Jun 26, 2026?: 92° to 93°
KXHIGHTHOU-26JUN26-B92.5
Will the maximum temperature be 94-95° on Jun 26, 2026?: 94° to 95°
KXHIGHTHOU-26JUN26-B94.5
Will the maximum temperature be 90-91° on Jun 26, 2026?: 90° to 91°
KXHIGHTHOU-26JUN26-B90.5
Will the maximum temperature be 96-97° on Jun 26, 2026?: 96° to 97°
KXHIGHTHOU-26JUN26-B96.5
Analysis
This market contracts on the maximum temperature expected in a specific location on May 31, 2026. The leading outcome of 91–92° carries 49% probability, with cooler outcomes (89–90°) at 27% and warmer outcomes (93–94°) at 15%. Temperature forecasts are driven by seasonal patterns, weather systems, and climate variability typical for late May in the region. Resolution depends on the official recorded maximum temperature on that specific date. Current pricing suggests moderate confidence in a warm but not extreme outcome, with meaningful uncertainty about whether conditions will trend cooler or hotter. Volume concentration in the leading contract reflects stronger conviction around the 91–92° band.
- ›The leading contract (91–92°) commands 49% of the implied probability, indicating traders expect warm but not peak-summer conditions for late May
- ›The price gap between the 91–92° contract (52¢) and 89–90° contract (27¢) suggests a shift toward warmer outcomes compared to cooler alternatives
- ›Trading volume is highest in the warmest plausible outcomes (89–94°), with minimal volume beyond 94°, indicating traders see extreme heat as unlikely
- ›Historical May 31 temperatures in the region and current atmospheric conditions would anchor baseline expectations for normal seasonal warming
- ›The resolution date (May 31, 2026) is approximately 1 month away, allowing weather models to sharpen forecasts but leaving room for system changes
Recently closed in climate
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- 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lowerlast 97% · 44d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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