Will the minimum temperature be >58° on Apr 22, 2026

Analysis

This represents the likelihood that the minimum temperature will exceed 58° on April 22, 2026—a date approximately 10 months in the future. At 45%, the market reflects moderate confidence in warmer-than-baseline conditions for that spring date. The forecast depends primarily on seasonal weather patterns and long-range climate conditions in April. Current contract activity shows traders are pricing in a range of outcomes, with the most likely single scenario being temperatures in the 75-76° range (based on today's trading, though the question asks about April). The main driver of this probability is historical April temperature distributions for the location in question and any available seasonal climate models. Resolution uncertainty will decrease significantly as April 2026 approaches and more precise weather forecasts become available, which typically improve 10-14 days before the actual date.

• ›The 45% probability reflects a below-even expectation, suggesting market consensus leans toward temperatures at or below 58° on April 22, 2026
• ›Contract volume is heavily concentrated in the 75-76° bucket ($87 24h volume), indicating significant trader interest in mid-range outcomes
• ›The runner-up outcome (25% probability) represents the second most likely scenario, leaving approximately 30% distributed across other temperature bands
• ›Historical April 22 temperature data for the location would provide the baseline against which a 58° minimum is compared
• ›As the date approaches within weeks or days, weather forecast models will provide actionable signals that could materially shift market pricing away from current 45% level

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds