Will the minimum temperature be >58° on Apr 22, 2026
Leader sits at 55% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 40%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
61° or above
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
40¢
59° to 60°
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$438
thin orderbook
Closes
May 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be 59-60° on May 9, 2026?: 59° to 60°
KXLOWTATL-26MAY09-B59.5
Will the minimum temperature be >60° on May 9, 2026?: 61° or above
KXLOWTATL-26MAY09-T60
Will the minimum temperature be 57-58° on May 9, 2026?: 57° to 58°
KXLOWTATL-26MAY09-B57.5
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In climate
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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