Will the maximum temperature be <93° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 51% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 36%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
109° to 110°
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
36¢
111° to 112°
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the maximum temperature be 1
Will the maximum temperature be 107-108° on Jun 26, 2026?: 107° to 108°
KXHIGHTPHX-26JUN26-B107.5
Will the maximum temperature be 109-110° on Jun 26, 2026?: 109° to 110°
KXHIGHTPHX-26JUN26-B109.5
Will the maximum temperature be 111-112° on Jun 26, 2026?: 111° to 112°
KXHIGHTPHX-26JUN26-B111.5
Analysis
This market reflects traders' expectations about whether the maximum temperature in an unspecified location will remain below 93°F on April 21, 2026—currently priced at 53% probability, indicating slightly better-than-even odds. However, the leading contracts show traders are focused on much higher temperatures (107–108°F) for June 3, 2026, suggesting the underlying question may reference that date instead. Temperature forecasts depend primarily on seasonal patterns, climate oscillations like El Niño or La Niña conditions, and local atmospheric circulation. The main catalyst for resolving this uncertainty will be the actual temperature reading on the reference date. Until then, shifts in long-range weather models and updates to climate indices could alter trader expectations. Currently, the 107–108°F bin commands the highest trading volume and probability, reflecting consensus around a hot outcome rather than cooler conditions.
- ›The question targets April 21, 2026, but top trading activity clusters around June 3, 2026 forecasts at much higher temperature bands, creating ambiguity about the actual reference date and location
- ›Long-range weather models and seasonal forecasts will be the primary information source updating trader beliefs over the next months
- ›Current leader (107–108°F at 53%) and runner-up (34%) together account for 87% of implied probability, concentrating risk on a narrow outcome band
- ›Historical volatility and typical daily temperature ranges for the reference location would inform the plausibility of each bounded bin
- ›Shifts in ENSO phase or other climate oscillations between now and April–June 2026 could materially change base-case temperature expectations
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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