Will the maximum temperature be 67-68° on Apr 21, 2026

Analysis

This contract tracks whether the maximum temperature will reach 67-68°F on April 21, 2026 — a spring day in the Northern Hemisphere. The 44% probability reflects genuine uncertainty about whether conditions will be cool enough to fall into this specific narrow band. Temperature forecasts at that range depend heavily on jet stream positioning, the strength of any lingering cold air mass, and local atmospheric conditions 10 months ahead. The main drivers of the current price are seasonal climatology for late April (typically warmer across much of North America) and the inherent difficulty of precision temperature forecasting beyond a few days. Resolution occurs on April 21, 2026, when observed weather data will determine the exact high temperature for that day and settle the contract.

• ›April 21 historically trends warmer than winter months across most of North America, creating baseline pressure for temperatures above 67-68°F in many regions
• ›The contract's narrow 2-degree band (67-68°) is tighter than typical seasonal variation, making any small shift in jet stream or moisture patterns meaningful to the outcome
• ›Current contract pricing shows traders pricing the under-90° outcome at only 18¢, indicating elevated expectations for above-average heat on June 13, 2026 itself, potentially reflecting broader climate patterns
• ›Weather data from April 2026 will be definitive and unambiguous; there is no room for interpretation or dispute once the day concludes
• ›The 44% probability implies roughly even odds, suggesting the market sees material chance conditions favor this specific temperature band despite seasonal norms

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds