SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 6 outcomes6 contractsKalshirefreshed 1 min agoCloses Jun 10, 2026 · 33d

Will Hims & Hers Health Inc. report Above 2.55 million subscribers in Q1 2026

Leader sits at 92% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 89%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

92%

Above 2.45 million

runner-up 89¢leader 92¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

89¢

Above 2.5 million

Spread

3pp

contested

24h volume

$3K

modest

Closes

Jun 10, 2026

33 days

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAbove 2.45 million: 94% (14 days, 10 points)Above 2.45 million: 94% on 2026-05-07Above 2.5 million: 89% (14 days, 11 points)Above 2.5 million: 89% on 2026-05-08Above 2.55 million: 42% (14 days, 8 points)Above 2.55 million: 42% on 2026-05-08
Above 2.45 million94¢Above 2.5 million89¢Above 2.55 million42¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 14d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Analysis

This represents whether Hims & Hers Health Inc. will report at least 2.55 million subscribers when it releases Q1 2026 financial results, currently judged as roughly even odds by market participants. The market appears to be balancing recent subscriber growth trends against potential seasonality and competitive pressures in the telehealth sector. The outcome hinges primarily on the company's actual subscriber additions during the January-March period and whether growth rates sustained at recent levels. Uncertainty will resolve when Hims reports its Q1 2026 earnings, typically occurring in late April or May 2026, at which point the company will disclose exact subscriber counts in its official financial statements or shareholder communications.

  • Hims' reported subscriber count at end of Q4 2025 and historical quarterly growth rate, which establishes the baseline trajectory needed to reach 2.55 million
  • Telehealth market saturation and competitive intensity in early 2026, particularly from GoodRx, Amazon Pharmacy, and other platforms, which could affect net subscriber additions
  • Seasonality patterns in telehealth demand and subscriber retention during Q1, which historically shows variation compared to other quarters
  • Pricing changes, product expansions, or marketing spend adjustments Hims implemented in late 2025 or early 2026 that would influence conversion and retention rates
  • The threshold of 2.55 million itself represents approximately 4.7% subscriber growth from typical analyst estimates for Q4 2025, a moderate but achievable target

What moved the line

  • May 8Above 2.55 million37pp7942¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Above 2.6 million26pp3913¢ · Kalshi
  • May 8Above 2.65 million9pp167¢ · Kalshi
  • May 6Above 2.6 million3pp4138¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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