Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28 million funded customers in 2026
Leader sits at 94% across 19 bound outcomes, runner-up at 94%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 28 million
Outcomes
19
winner-take-all
Runner-up
94¢
Above 28.2 million
Spread
0pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 31, 2028
588 days
Venue
Kalshi
19 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.4 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 29.4 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-29400000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 36.2 million funded customers in fiscal 2026?: Above 36.2 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-36200000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 36 million funded customers in fiscal 2026?: Above 36 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-36000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 35 million funded customers in fiscal 2026?: Above 35 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-35000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 34 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 34 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-34000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 33 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 33 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-33000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 32 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 32 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-32000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report above 31 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 31 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-31000000
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 30.2 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 30.2 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-30200000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 30 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 30 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-30000000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.8 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 29.8 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-29800000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.6 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 29.6 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-29600000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29.2 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 29.2 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-29200000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 29 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 29 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-29000000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28.8 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 28.8 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-28800000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28.6 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 28.6 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-28600000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28.4 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 28.4 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-28400000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28.2 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 28.2 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-28200000.0
Will Robinhood Markets Inc. report Above 28 million funded customers in 2026?: Above 28 million
KXHOODA-28JANFUNDED-28000000.0
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 88% probability that Robinhood will report at least 28 million funded customers by end of 2026, with tighter contract bands showing 86% confidence they'll exceed 28.2 million. This matters because customer growth is a core metric for retail brokerage valuations and operational scale. The current level reflects Robinhood's recent customer acquisition trajectory—the firm reported 23.2 million funded customers in Q4 2024, requiring roughly 2.3 million net additions through year-end 2026 to hit 28 million. Upward pressure comes from sustained retail interest and broader market engagement; downward pressure would stem from economic slowdown reducing new account openings or elevated churn. Resolution depends entirely on Robinhood's official 2026 year-end earnings disclosure, typically released in early 2027. The steep drop-off in contract prices above 28.6 million suggests markets view growth beyond that threshold as unlikely rather than routine.
- ›Robinhood added approximately 4.1 million funded customers in 2024; hitting 28 million would require a 2024-like growth rate sustained into 2026
- ›Market contraction or recession could depress new account creation and increase customer inactivity, moving the outcome below threshold
- ›The 88% price assumes continued retail participation; a major market correction in 2026 could reshape customer growth expectations
- ›Robinhood's competitive positioning against Fidelity, Charles Schwab, and others affects market share capture and retention rates
- ›Resolution is binary and verified at year-end 2026 via official investor filings, eliminating ambiguity about measurement
What moved the line
- Aug 14Above 29.8 million↓7pp38→31¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 14Above 30.2 million↓7pp28→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Above 29.4 million↓6pp46→40¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 28.8 million↓6pp86→80¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 28.8 million↑6pp80→86¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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