Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons
Leader sits at 95% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 90%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 4.3 billion gallons
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
90¢
Above 4.4 billion gallons
Spread
5pp
contested
24h volume
$4K
modest
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.4 billion gallons?: Above 4.4 billion gallons
KXIAETHANOL-27JAN31-T4.4
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 5.0 billion gallons?: Above 5.0 billion gallons
KXIAETHANOL-27JAN31-T5.0
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.9 billion gallons?: Above 4.9 billion gallons
KXIAETHANOL-27JAN31-T4.9
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.8 billion gallons?: Above 4.8 billion gallons
KXIAETHANOL-27JAN31-T4.8
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.7 billion gallons?: Above 4.7 billion gallons
KXIAETHANOL-27JAN31-T4.7
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.6 billion gallons?: Above 4.6 billion gallons
KXIAETHANOL-27JAN31-T4.6
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.5 billion gallons?: Above 4.5 billion gallons
KXIAETHANOL-27JAN31-T4.5
Will Iowa ethanol production for 2026 be above 4.3 billion gallons?: Above 4.3 billion gallons
KXIAETHANOL-27JAN31-T4.3
Analysis
Markets are pricing a 76% probability that Iowa will produce above 4.5 billion gallons of ethanol in 2026, with substantially lower odds (16%) for production exceeding 4.7 billion gallons. This reflects expected output given current corn supplies, refinery demand, and historical production trends. The wide spread across contract prices—from 76¢ down to 6¢ as thresholds increase—indicates uncertainty about whether production will reach mid-to-high range levels. Resolution depends on final 2026 production data, typically released by the U.S. Energy Information Administration in early 2027. Key drivers include corn crop yields this harvest season, domestic fuel blending mandates, export demand for ethanol, and refinery operating rates. A significant shortfall in the corn harvest or reduced renewable fuel mandates would pressure production downward, while strong demand and favorable growing conditions could push it toward higher thresholds.
- ›2026 corn crop yield and total harvest volume directly determines feedstock availability for ethanol production
- ›Renewable Fuel Standard (RFS) mandates set annual ethanol blending targets that influence refinery demand
- ›Historical Iowa ethanol production has ranged 3.8-4.2 billion gallons annually; levels above 4.7 billion would represent a multi-year high
- ›Export demand for U.S. ethanol and international trade policy affect utilization rates beyond domestic blending requirements
- ›Crude oil prices and gasoline spreads influence ethanol's competitiveness relative to other fuels in the refinery mix
What moved the line
- Aug 23Above 4.4 billion gallons↑4pp89→93¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 24Above 4.4 billion gallons↓4pp93→89¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21Above 4.7 billion gallons↑4pp17→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Above 4.8 billion gallons↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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