Will Alex Palou be the NTT IndyCar Series Champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 60% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
60%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$286
2 contracts
Closes
Sep 13, 2026
52 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Alex Palou be the NTT IndyCar Series Champion
Will Alex Palou be the NTT IndyCar Series Champion?: Alex Palou
KXINDYCARSERIES-NTTICS26-APAL
Cluster 2
Will Marcus Ericsson be the NTT IndyCar Series Champion
Will Marcus Ericsson be the NTT IndyCar Series Champion?: Marcus Ericsson
KXINDYCARSERIES-NTTICS26-MERI
Analysis
This market reflects a 39% probability that Alex Palou will win the 2026 NTT IndyCar Series championship. Palou's probability is shaped by his track record as a competitive driver who has won the championship before, balanced against the depth of talent in the series and the unpredictability of season-long performance across varied tracks and weather conditions. The championship will be determined through a series of races culminating in the final points tally, with mid-season performance trends and driver consistency being critical indicators of whether he can sustain competitiveness throughout the year. Key upcoming races and how competitors accumulate points relative to Palou will provide clarity on whether his championship odds should shift higher or lower.
- ›Palou's historical performance data: previous championship wins, podium consistency, and pole position frequency compared to current season results
- ›Competitive field composition: the number and caliber of other title contenders and whether any single rival is emerging as the statistical favorite
- ›Mid-season standings position: Palou's points lead or deficit relative to competitors after approximately half the scheduled races have been completed
- ›Mechanical reliability and team resources: whether Palou's team demonstrates superior pit crew execution and car reliability across different racing environments
- ›Upcoming high-stakes races: performance in premier events and on specific track types (ovals vs. road courses) that heavily influence championship outcomes
What moved the line
- Jul 21Alex Palou↑9pp72→81¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 21Marcus Ericsson↓9pp44→35¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 19Alex Palou↓3pp77→74¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in sports
- Iran removed from FIFA World Cup by...last 13% · 26d
- How many 2026 FIFA World Cup matches will Donald Trump attend this seasonlast 93% · 36d
- Will Iran Play in the World Cuplast 97% · 37d
- Will Iran Play in the 2026 FIFA World Cuplast 97% · 48d
- ATP Tennis Matcheslast 50% · 49d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (60% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In sports
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.