Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 Pro before Oct 1, 2026
Leader sits at 86% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 85%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Sep 28, 2026
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
85¢
Before Oct 2026
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$39K
liquid
Closes
Jun 1, 2027
255 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 Pro before
Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 Pro before Sep 21, 2026?: Before Sep 21, 2026
KXIPHONERELEASE-IPHONE18PRO-26SEP21
Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 Pro before Sep 28, 2026?: Before Sep 28, 2026
KXIPHONERELEASE-IPHONE18PRO-26SEP28
Will Apple Inc. release iPhone 18 Pro before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 2026
KXIPHONERELEASE-IPHONE18PRO-26OCT01
Analysis
The market assigns a 95% probability that Apple will release the iPhone 18 Pro before June 1, 2027, reflecting high confidence in a near-term announcement. Apple's historical release cadence follows a consistent September launch window, which explains why the October 2026 contract trades at 89%—slightly before the typical announcement date—while later deadlines command higher probabilities. The main drivers are Apple's product development timeline and the company's established fall event schedule. The single biggest catalyst is Apple's expected September 2026 keynote event, where the company typically unveils new iPhone models. If Apple deviates from this pattern or announces a delay, market probabilities would adjust downward significantly. Conversely, early leaks or official confirmation of a September launch would tighten prices toward the October contract.
- ›Apple's historical pattern of announcing new iPhone models in September suggests an October 2026 release is likely within the typical launch window
- ›The gap between the October 2026 contract (89¢) and June 2027 contract (95¢) reflects ~6% additional probability for delays, supply chain issues, or production complications
- ›Zero trading volume across all four Kalshi contracts in the past 24 hours indicates limited market depth and potential illiquidity
- ›The iPhone 18 Pro naming and numbering convention assumes Apple continues current nomenclature rather than adopting alternative branding strategies
- ›Official announcements, regulatory filings, or supply chain disruptions by late August 2026 would provide concrete signals about the September release timeline
What moved the line
- Sep 17Before Sep 28, 2026↑7pp91→98¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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