Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026
Leader sits at 25% across 2 bound outcomes, runner-up at 10%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Aug 1, 2026
Outcomes
2
winner-take-all
Runner-up
10¢
Before Jul 1, 2026
Spread
15pp
contested
24h volume
$570
thin orderbook
Closes
Aug 1, 2026
56 days
Venue
Kalshi
2 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Jul 1, 2026?: Before Jul 1, 2026
KXKASHANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-JUL01
Will Kash Patel announce their departure as FBI Director before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXKASHANNOUNCEOUT-26APR-AUG01
Analysis
This contract reflects a 49% probability that Kash Patel will publicly announce his departure as FBI Director sometime between now and August 1, 2026. The near-even split suggests meaningful uncertainty about his tenure stability. Related contracts show progressively lower odds for earlier departure dates (17% by June 1, 37% by July 1), indicating markets view August as a meaningful extension point. The probability is likely influenced by political dynamics, any public statements about his role, staffing decisions at the FBI, and broader shifts in the administration. The contract resolves at the end of July, so any announcement in the final weeks leading up to that date would be the primary uncertainty driver. Related departures or institutional changes at the FBI could also shift expectations.
- ›Current market pricing at 17% for June departure suggests most traders expect Patel to remain through mid-summer if departing at all
- ›The 49% August probability versus 68% probability of departure before 2027 implies roughly 19% of traders expect departure between August and year-end
- ›Volatility and trading volume are concentrated on the June and July deadlines, indicating those dates carry higher informational weight for market participants
- ›Patel's public communications about his role and FBI priorities would directly influence announcement likelihood
- ›Changes in FBI leadership announcements, staffing reshuffles, or administration-level personnel shifts could serve as leading indicators
What moved the line
- May 30Before Jul 1, 2026↑3pp10→13¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 2Before Aug 1, 2026↓3pp31→28¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- How long will Donald Trump speak for at White House Correspondents' Dinnerlast 92% · 0d
- Which topic will Donald Trump mention most during Roundtable Chippewa Falls, Wisconsinlast 45% · 0d
- Will the White House Press Secretary say Radical Left at her next press briefinglast 15% · 0d
- # of seats won by PPP in South Korea by-elections?: 3last 50% · 1d
- # of seats won by DP in South Korea by-elections?: 10+last 86% · 1d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (25% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.