Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 11% across 9 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
11%
9 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
9 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
166 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 9 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Munetaka Murakami lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-SOHT
Cluster 3
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Judge
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-AJUD
Cluster 4
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Matt Olson
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-MOLS
Cluster 5
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Yordan Alvarez
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-YALV
Cluster 6
Will Ben Rice lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Ben Rice lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Ben Rice
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-BRIC
Cluster 7
Will Mike Trout lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Mike Trout lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Mike Trout
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-MTRO
Cluster 8
Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Kyle Schwarber
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-KSCH
Cluster 9
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Ronald Acuña Jr.
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-RACU
Analysis
This probability estimates a 14% chance that Pete Alonso finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more home runs than any other player. The market shows relatively modest confidence in Alonso leading baseball in home runs, with related contracts indicating he's viewed as a mid-tier contender for the title. Uncertainty around Alonso's HR leadership stems from his age and health trajectory, alongside the presence of elite competitors like Munetaka Murakami (17% implied probability), Yordan Alvarez (10%), and others. The resolution occurs at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in late September or early October, when final home run totals are tallied. Key drivers of this probability include Alonso's seasonal performance trends, his team's lineup construction and playing time decisions, and the pace-of-play set by leading competitors mid-season.
- ›Pete Alonso's career home run rate and durability through a full 2026 season
- ›Competition from other elite home run hitters, particularly Murakami at 17% implied probability
- ›Contract indicating Alonso has 61% probability of hitting 30+ home runs, suggesting market expects production but not necessarily league-leading
- ›Number of games played and at-bats Alonso accumulates relative to competing players
- ›Changes in home run environment factors such as ball specifications, ballpark dimensions, or offensive talent distribution in 2026
What moved the line
- May 7Matt Olson↑5pp3→8¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Yordan Alvarez↓4pp11→7¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Munetaka Murakami↑3pp15→18¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Munetaka Murakami↓3pp18→15¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Mike Trout↑3pp3→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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