SimpleFunctions
6 source contracts·Kalshi 6·refreshed just now·Closes Oct 22, 2026 · 101d

Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

15%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

15%

6 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$520

6 contracts

Closes

Oct 22, 2026

101 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 44% (31 days, 31 points)Aggregate: 44% on 2026-07-13
Aggregate of 6 contracts · 31d

Bracket families

6 clusters across 6 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$200

Cluster 2

Will James Wood lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$125

Cluster 3

Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$122

Cluster 4

Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$73

Cluster 5

Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability estimates a 14% chance that Pete Alonso finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more home runs than any other player. The market shows relatively modest confidence in Alonso leading baseball in home runs, with related contracts indicating he's viewed as a mid-tier contender for the title. Uncertainty around Alonso's HR leadership stems from his age and health trajectory, alongside the presence of elite competitors like Munetaka Murakami (17% implied probability), Yordan Alvarez (10%), and others. The resolution occurs at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in late September or early October, when final home run totals are tallied. Key drivers of this probability include Alonso's seasonal performance trends, his team's lineup construction and playing time decisions, and the pace-of-play set by leading competitors mid-season.

  • Pete Alonso's career home run rate and durability through a full 2026 season
  • Competition from other elite home run hitters, particularly Murakami at 17% implied probability
  • Contract indicating Alonso has 61% probability of hitting 30+ home runs, suggesting market expects production but not necessarily league-leading
  • Number of games played and at-bats Alonso accumulates relative to competing players
  • Changes in home run environment factors such as ball specifications, ballpark dimensions, or offensive talent distribution in 2026

What moved the line

  • Jul 6Yordan Alvarez4pp1822¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 7James Wood4pp26¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 12James Wood4pp62¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 12Yordan Alvarez3pp1821¢ · Kalshi
  • Jul 10Kyle Schwarber3pp4845¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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