Will Pete Alonso lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 15% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
15%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$520
6 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
101 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Yordan Alvarez lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will James Wood lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will James Wood lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: James Wood
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-JWOO
Cluster 3
Will Kyle Schwarber lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Junior Caminero lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 5
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Juan Soto
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-JSOT
Cluster 6
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season
Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in home runs for the 2026 regular season?: Matt Olson
KXLEADERMLBHR-26-MOLS
Analysis
This probability estimates a 14% chance that Pete Alonso finishes the 2026 MLB regular season with more home runs than any other player. The market shows relatively modest confidence in Alonso leading baseball in home runs, with related contracts indicating he's viewed as a mid-tier contender for the title. Uncertainty around Alonso's HR leadership stems from his age and health trajectory, alongside the presence of elite competitors like Munetaka Murakami (17% implied probability), Yordan Alvarez (10%), and others. The resolution occurs at the conclusion of the 2026 regular season in late September or early October, when final home run totals are tallied. Key drivers of this probability include Alonso's seasonal performance trends, his team's lineup construction and playing time decisions, and the pace-of-play set by leading competitors mid-season.
- ›Pete Alonso's career home run rate and durability through a full 2026 season
- ›Competition from other elite home run hitters, particularly Murakami at 17% implied probability
- ›Contract indicating Alonso has 61% probability of hitting 30+ home runs, suggesting market expects production but not necessarily league-leading
- ›Number of games played and at-bats Alonso accumulates relative to competing players
- ›Changes in home run environment factors such as ball specifications, ballpark dimensions, or offensive talent distribution in 2026
What moved the line
- Jul 6Yordan Alvarez↑4pp18→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7James Wood↑4pp2→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 12James Wood↓4pp6→2¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 12Yordan Alvarez↑3pp18→21¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 10Kyle Schwarber↓3pp48→45¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 1d
- Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primarylast 8% · 1d
- Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 97% · 1d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 1d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026last 86% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.