Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5
18 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
82 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Corbin Carroll lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Austin Hays lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Austin Hays lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Austin Hays
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-AHAY
Cluster 3
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Judge
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-AJUD
Cluster 4
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Byron Buxton
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-BBUX
Cluster 5
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Bryce Harper
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-BHAR
Cluster 6
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Brent Rooker
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-BROO
Cluster 7
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Bobby Witt Jr.
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-BWIT
Cluster 8
Will CJ Abrams lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will CJ Abrams lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: CJ Abrams
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-CABR
Cluster 9
Will Cody Bellinger lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Cody Bellinger lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Cody Bellinger
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-CBEL
Cluster 10
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Cal Raleigh
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-CRAL
Cluster 11
Will Daylen Lile lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Daylen Lile lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Daylen Lile
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-DLIL
Cluster 12
Will Elly De La Cruz lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Elly De La Cruz lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Elly De La Cruz
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-ECRU
Cluster 13
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Freddie Freeman
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-FFRE
Cluster 14
Will Gunnar Henderson lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 15
Will Hunter Goodman lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Hunter Goodman lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Hunter Goodman
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-HGOO
Cluster 16
Will Jordan Beck lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Jordan Beck lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Jordan Beck
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-JBEC
Cluster 17
Will Jarren Duran lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Jarren Duran lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Jarren Duran
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-JDUR
Cluster 18
Will Jung Hoo Lee lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season
Will Jung Hoo Lee lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season?: Jung Hoo Lee
KXLEADERMLBTRIPLES-26-JHOO
Analysis
This prediction estimates a 5% chance that Bobby Witt Jr. will lead Major League Baseball in triples during the 2026 regular season, currently ending in late September. Witt Jr. has shown speed and athleticism as a Kansas City Royals outfielder, but leading baseball in triples depends on multiple factors: his plate appearances and opportunities, health throughout the season, and team offensive context. The regular season results will determine the outcome—whoever accumulates the most three-base hits by September 2026 will settle this contract. Several other players are priced similarly or lower, suggesting the market views this outcome as unlikely but not prohibitive. The final standings in triples will be publicly available once the regular season concludes.
- ›Bobby Witt Jr.'s historical triple rate compared to league leaders; he would need to significantly outpace his typical frequency to win the category
- ›Playing time and injury risk over a full 162-game season; fewer games or extended absences reduce probability substantially
- ›Team context and offensive style; the Royals' base-running approach and park dimensions affect triple opportunities compared to competitors
- ›Competition from faster outfielders with higher triple averages who have comparable or better seasonal opportunities
- ›September 2026 final MLB statistics will definitively show total triples for all qualified players, determining the winner
What moved the line
- Jul 28Corbin Carroll↑6pp83→89¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
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