SimpleFunctions
19 contractsKalshirefreshed 2 min agoCloses Oct 22, 2026 · 166d

Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 5% across 19 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

5%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

5%

19 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$0

19 contracts

Closes

Oct 22, 2026

166 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 8% (7 days, 7 points)Aggregate: 8% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 7d

Bracket families

18 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters

The top two clusters share only 8% of their title tokens — “Will Michael” vs “Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.

Cluster 1

Will Michael

2 contracts$0

Cluster 2

Will Aaron Judge lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Byron Buxton lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Jung Hoo Lee lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Daylen Lile lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Zach McKinstry lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Freddie Freeman lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Matt Olson lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will José Ramírez lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Juan Soto lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Mickey Moniak lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will Cal Raleigh lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Bryce Harper lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 15

Will Bobby Witt Jr. lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Gunnar Henderson lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

Will Kyle Tucker lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Cluster 18

Will Brent Rooker lead Pro Baseball in triples for the 2026 regular season

1 contract$0

Analysis

This contract asks whether Bobby Witt Jr. will lead Major League Baseball in triples during the 2026 regular season. The 6% probability reflects that leading the league in triples is an uncommon achievement requiring both sustained playing time and a specific skill profile—speed combined with hitting ability. Witt Jr. is a high-quality player but not historically a triples leader. The probability would shift based on his actual triple production through the season, comparative performance from other league leaders like faster outfielders or high-average hitters, and injury status across the league. The resolution will become clearer as the regular season progresses, with final determination at the season's end in early October 2026. Triples remain a relatively rare statistic influenced by ballpark dimensions, player health, and lineup construction.

  • Bobby Witt Jr. has not led MLB in triples in prior seasons; 2022-2025 data shows other players consistently surpass typical annual triple totals
  • MLB triples leaders typically accumulate 10-20+ triples per season, requiring consistent at-bats and specific hitting patterns that trade power for base hits
  • Witt Jr.'s playing time, injury history, and actual triple production through May-September 2026 will determine outcome
  • Ballpark factors and leadoff/speed-based hitter prevalence in competing lineups create variable competition for the league lead
  • Resolution occurs at end of 2026 MLB regular season in October when official statistics are finalized

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

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