Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 7% across 12 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
7%
12 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$940
12 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
102 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
12 clusters across 12 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Cristopher Sánchez lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will Logan Gilbert lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Logan Gilbert lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Logan Gilbert
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-LGIL
Cluster 3
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Aaron Ashby lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Aaron Ashby lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Aaron Ashby
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-AASH
Cluster 5
Will Cam Schlittler lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Cam Schlittler lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Cam Schlittler
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-CSCH
Cluster 6
Will Jacob Misiorowski lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 7
Will Sandy Alcantara lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Sandy Alcantara lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Sandy Alcantara
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-SALC
Cluster 8
Will Brayan Bello lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Brayan Bello lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Brayan Bello
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-BBEL
Cluster 9
Will Bryan Woo lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryan Woo lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Bryan Woo
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-BWOO
Cluster 10
Will Cade Horton lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Cade Horton lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Cade Horton
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-CHOR
Cluster 11
Will Cole Ragans lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Cole Ragans lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Cole Ragans
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-CRAG
Cluster 12
Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Chris Sale
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-CSAL
Analysis
This contract asks whether Chris Sale will record the most wins by any pitcher in Major League Baseball during the 2026 regular season. The 5% probability reflects skepticism about Sale leading the league in a category determined by both pitching performance and team wins. Sale's health status and pitch availability are primary factors; he has experienced significant injuries in recent years that would need to remain resolved. Competition from other elite starters like Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell, and Corbin Burnes also matters, as does his team's offensive support. The outcome will be largely determined by Sale's durability through the full season and where he ranks among the league's most consistent winners by September 2026.
- ›Sale's injury history and durability; he has missed substantial time due to various injuries and would need to stay healthy and active throughout the 162-game season
- ›Win totals typically range 18-24 for league leaders, requiring both strong pitching performance and team success; Sale's team would need consistent run support
- ›Competition from multiple other elite starting pitchers who are also positioned to accumulate significant wins
- ›Starts pitched matters; leading in wins often requires 30+ starts in a season, making availability and innings pitched critical thresholds
- ›League-wide ERA leaders do not always lead in wins; the relationship between individual pitching dominance and team victories is imperfect
What moved the line
- Jul 5Cristopher Sánchez↓4pp10→6¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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