Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$674
10 contracts
Closes
Oct 22, 2026
166 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Chris Sale lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Chris Sale
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-CSAL
Cluster 2
Will Bryan Woo lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Bryan Woo lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Bryan Woo
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-BWOO
Cluster 3
Will Yoshinobu Yamamoto lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Cluster 4
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Shohei Ohtani lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Shohei Ohtani
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-SOHT
Cluster 5
Will Max Fried lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Max Fried lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Max Fried
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-MFRI
Cluster 6
Will Jacob deGrom lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Jacob deGrom lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Jacob deGrom
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-JDEG
Cluster 7
Will Framber Valdez lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Framber Valdez lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Framber Valdez
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-FVAL
Cluster 8
Will Cole Ragans lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Cole Ragans lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Cole Ragans
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-CRAG
Cluster 9
Will Jesús Luzardo lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Jesús Luzardo lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Jesús Luzardo
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-JLUZ
Cluster 10
Will Logan Gilbert lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season
Will Logan Gilbert lead Pro Baseball in wins for the 2026 regular season?: Logan Gilbert
KXLEADERMLBWINS-26-LGIL
Analysis
This contract asks whether Chris Sale will record the most wins by any pitcher in Major League Baseball during the 2026 regular season. The 5% probability reflects skepticism about Sale leading the league in a category determined by both pitching performance and team wins. Sale's health status and pitch availability are primary factors; he has experienced significant injuries in recent years that would need to remain resolved. Competition from other elite starters like Gerrit Cole, Blake Snell, and Corbin Burnes also matters, as does his team's offensive support. The outcome will be largely determined by Sale's durability through the full season and where he ranks among the league's most consistent winners by September 2026.
- ›Sale's injury history and durability; he has missed substantial time due to various injuries and would need to stay healthy and active throughout the 162-game season
- ›Win totals typically range 18-24 for league leaders, requiring both strong pitching performance and team success; Sale's team would need consistent run support
- ›Competition from multiple other elite starting pitchers who are also positioned to accumulate significant wins
- ›Starts pitched matters; leading in wins often requires 30+ starts in a season, making availability and innings pitched critical thresholds
- ›League-wide ERA leaders do not always lead in wins; the relationship between individual pitching dominance and team victories is imperfect
What moved the line
- May 2Chris Sale↑3pp4→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
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