Will Friedrich Merz leave Chancellor of Germany before Apr 1, 2027

30-day trend

Analysis

This market estimates a 9% probability that Friedrich Merz will resign or be removed as German Chancellor before April 1, 2027. Merz assumed office in February 2025 as leader of the CDU/CSU and heads a coalition government. The low probability reflects his recent election mandate and relatively stable coalition arrangement, though German political coalitions can face unexpected pressures. Key drivers of movement would be major economic shocks, coalition partner defections, or significant domestic crises. The absence of trading volume across related contracts suggests limited market concern about near-term departure scenarios. Resolution will depend on whether Merz's coalition remains intact and whether he retains sufficient political support within his party and government through early 2027.

• ›Coalition stability: The CDU/CSU-led government's ability to maintain parliamentary majorities and resolve disputes between coalition partners (SPD or Greens, depending on structure)
• ›Economic conditions: Germany's growth rate, inflation trajectory, and unemployment figures between now and April 2027, which could pressure the government's popularity
• ›Internal CDU leadership: Whether Merz faces challenges to his party leadership or authority from within the CDU/CSU caucus
• ›Parliamentary confidence votes: Any formal or informal confidence votes that would directly test Merz's ability to command a majority
• ›Unforeseen crises: Major geopolitical, security, or domestic emergencies that could destabilize the coalition or force leadership changes

What moved the line

• Sep 18Before Jan 1, 2029↑56pp9→65¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 18Before Jan 1, 2028↑44pp9→53¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Before Jul 1, 2027↑10pp43→53¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Before Jan 1, 2028↑10pp53→63¢ · Kalshi
• Sep 19Before Jan 1, 2027↑8pp22→30¢ · Kalshi

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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

How we compute these odds