Tigres de Quintana Roo vs Leones de Yucatan winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 34% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
34%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 12, 2026
0 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 10% of their title tokens — “Bravos de Leon vs Tigres de Quintana Roo winner” vs “Rieleros de Aguascalientes vs Dorados de Chihuahua winner”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Bravos de Leon vs Tigres de Quintana Roo winner
Cluster 2
Rieleros de Aguascalientes vs Dorados de Chihuahua winner
Cluster 3
Toros de Tijuana vs Sultanes de Monterrey winner
Cluster 4
Guerreros de Oaxaca vs Olmecas de Tabasco winner
Cluster 5
Leones de Yucatan vs El Aguila de Veracruz winner
Cluster 6
Saraperos de Saltillo vs Acereros de Monclova winner
Cluster 7
Pericos de Puebla vs Piratas de Campeche winner
Cluster 8
Charros de Jalisco vs Algodoneros de Union Laguna winner
Cluster 9
Tecolotes de Los Dos Laredos vs Toros de Tijuana winner
Cluster 10
Diablos Rojos Del Mexico vs Tigres de Quintana Roo winner
Analysis
This market reflects an assessment that Tigres de Quintana Roo has only a 3% chance of defeating Leones de Yucatan in their matchup. The probability is based on limited trading activity across 16 Kalshi contracts, suggesting low market confidence or interest in this particular game outcome. The level implies strong market expectations favoring Leones de Yucatan or significant uncertainty about team performance. Resolution depends on the scheduled game result. Key drivers of this low probability would include historical head-to-head performance, current team standings in the Mexican League system, recent form and injury status, and home-field advantage considerations. Any major roster changes, recent winning streaks, or shifts in team dynamics before the match could alter the probability upward. The limited trading volume ($5 maximum 24-hour volume across top contracts) indicates this remains a relatively niche market with potential for wider price swings if trading increases.
- ›Limited trading activity (16 total contracts, max $5 24h volume) suggests low market participation and potential pricing inefficiency
- ›The 3% probability implies market participants heavily favor Leones de Yucatan, suggesting significant historical or current performance disparities
- ›No recent contract data provided about game date or team standings, making it unclear if this reflects pre-season expectations or imminent matchup analysis
- ›Kalshi contract pricing at 5¢ across multiple outcomes indicates uniform market skepticism rather than strong conviction in any single outcome
- ›Absence of volume on some comparable contracts (Sultanes vs Tecolotes Monterrey side at $0 volume) suggests broader engagement challenges in Mexican League betting
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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