Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 30 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026
Leader sits at 91% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 88%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Above 20
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
88¢
Above 25
Spread
3pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Feb 17, 2027
157 days
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 20 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 20
KXLMT-26OCTF35-20
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 55 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 55
KXLMT-26OCTF35-55
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 50 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 50
KXLMT-26OCTF35-50
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 45 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 45
KXLMT-26OCTF35-45
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 40 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 40
KXLMT-26OCTF35-40
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 35 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 35
KXLMT-26OCTF35-35
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 30 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 30
KXLMT-26OCTF35-30
Will Lockheed Martin Corporation report Above 25 f-35 aircraft deliveries in Q3 2026?: Above 25
KXLMT-26OCTF35-25
Analysis
This market is pricing the likelihood that Lockheed Martin will deliver more than 30 F-35 fighter jets during the third quarter of 2026. The 97% probability reflects strong confidence in a relatively modest delivery threshold. Historical production rates and existing supply-chain dynamics support this baseline expectation, though the market shows declining confidence as thresholds rise—only 3% probability is assigned to deliveries exceeding 55 units. The key uncertainty centers on production bottlenecks, supplier delays, and customer acceptance timelines, all of which could compress quarterly output. Resolution will occur when Lockheed Martin reports official Q3 2026 earnings and delivery figures, typically in late October or early November 2026. Markets assign only 12% probability to the >50 threshold, suggesting participants expect the company to cluster deliveries between 20 and 40 units for the quarter.
- ›Historical Lockheed Martin F-35 quarterly deliveries and trend trajectory through 2025 and early 2026
- ›Current supply-chain status for major subsystems (engines, radar, fuselages) and known delays or acceleration
- ›Customer acceptance and funding availability across international and U.S. defense departments for Q3 intake
- ›Production capacity utilization and labor availability at Fort Worth and subcontractor facilities
- ›Scheduled maintenance downtime or known quality reviews that could impact Q3 output
What moved the line
- Sep 10Above 25↓35pp88→53¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Above 35↓25pp61→36¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Above 40↓19pp48→29¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 10Above 45↓19pp31→12¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 11Above 45↑14pp12→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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