LoL
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
5 contracts
Closes
Jul 27, 2026
31 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will G2 Esports win League of Legends MSI
Will G2 Esports win League of Legends MSI?: G2 Esports
KXLOL-MSI26-G2
Cluster 2
Will T1 win League of Legends MSI
Will T1 win League of Legends MSI?: T1
KXLOL-MSI26-T1
Cluster 3
Will Hanwha Life Esports win League of Legends MSI
Will Hanwha Life Esports win League of Legends MSI?: Hanwha Life Esports
KXLOL-MSI26-HLE
Cluster 4
Will Bilibili Gaming win League of Legends MSI
Will Bilibili Gaming win League of Legends MSI?: Bilibili Gaming
KXLOL-MSI26-BLG
Cluster 5
Will Karmine Corp win League of Legends MSI
Will Karmine Corp win League of Legends MSI?: Karmine Corp
KXLOL-MSI26-KC
Analysis
This probability represents how likely a specific outcome is across 20 different League of Legends related contracts, with the leading outcome priced at 64%. The market reflects significant uncertainty, as the runner-up sits only 1 percentage point lower at 63%, indicating competitive odds across multiple scenarios. Factors driving the current level include recent tournament performance data, roster changes, patch updates, and regional strength assessments. The main catalyst resolving this uncertainty would be upcoming official League competition results or announcements—likely scheduled matches or tournament brackets that determine which outcome materializes. Movement in these prices typically follows concrete competitive events rather than speculation, as each contract tracks a distinct resolution condition tied to verifiable League of Legends outcomes.
- ›The top two outcomes differ by only 1 percentage point (64% vs 63%), indicating the market hasn't settled on a clear frontrunner despite 20 contracts competing
- ›No contracts are currently bound to orders, suggesting limited recent trading activity and potential price stability or illiquidity
- ›Resolution depends on specific League of Legends competitive events with known schedules and verifiable outcomes
- ›Polymarket contracts show an average of 39% across all 20 outcomes, indicating probabilities are distributed rather than concentrated on one scenario
- ›Tournament patches, roster announcements, or regional qualifier results would likely shift market prices materially
What moved the line
- Jun 23Karmine Corp↓6pp12→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19T1↑5pp22→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19G2 Esports↓4pp7→3¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24T1↓3pp30→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Bilibili Gaming↑3pp25→28¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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