Will Trinity and Sincere finish 3rd in Love Island USA Season 8
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$13K
18 contracts
Closes
Aug 31, 2026
67 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
9 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Heads-up — heterogeneous clusters
The top two clusters share only 17% of their title tokens — “Will Melanie” vs “Will Kayda and Zach finish”. The headline aggregate weights both, so the number on this page is meaningful only if the clusters resolve to the same question.
Cluster 1
Will Melanie
Will Melanie and Sincere finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?: Melanie and Sincere
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-MESI
Will Melanie and Sincere finish 2nd in Love Island USA Season 8?: Melanie and Sincere
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R2-MESI
Will Melanie and Sincere finish 3rd in Love Island USA Season 8?: Melanie and Sincere
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3-MESI
Will Melanie and Corey finish 3 Place in Love Island USA Season 8?: Melanie and Corey
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3-MECRY
Cluster 2
Will Kayda and Zach finish
Will Kayda and Zach finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Zach
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-KAZA
Will Kayda and Zach finish 2 Place in Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Zach
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R2-KAZA
Will Kayda and Zach finish 3 Place in Love Island USA Season 8?: Kayda and Zach
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3-KAZA
Cluster 3
Will Aniya
Will Aniya and KC finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and KC
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-ANKC
Will Aniya and Corey finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Corey
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-ANCRY
Will Aniya and Corey finish 2 Place in Love Island USA Season 8?: Aniya and Corey
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R2-ANCRY
Cluster 4
Will Trinity and Bryce finish
Will Trinity and Bryce finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?: Trinity and Bryce
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-TRBR
Will Trinity and Bryce finish 2nd in Love Island USA Season 8?: Trinity and Bryce
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R2-TRBR
Cluster 5
Will Kenzie
Will Kenzie and Corbin finish 3 Place in Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Corbin
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3-KECO
Will Kenzie and Dylan finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8?: Kenzie and Dylan
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31RTOP3-KEDY
Cluster 6
Will Sol and Sincere finish in the Top 3 Couples in Love Island USA Season 8
Cluster 7
Will Tierra and KC finish 3 Place in Love Island USA Season 8
Will Tierra and KC finish 3 Place in Love Island USA Season 8?: Tierra and KC
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3-TIKC
Cluster 8
Will Parmida and Corbin finish 3 Place in Love Island USA Season 8
Cluster 9
Will Jaiden and Caleb finish 3 Place in Love Island USA Season 8
Will Jaiden and Caleb finish 3 Place in Love Island USA Season 8?: Jaiden and Caleb
KXLOVEISLANDUSARANK-26AUG31R3-JACA
Analysis
This market represents traders' assessment of the likelihood that Trinity and Sincere will be the third-place finishers in Love Island USA Season 8. The 6% probability reflects a low but non-negligible chance of this specific outcome, suggesting most traders view them as unlikely to reach third place or finish together. Trading volume remains modest ($100 in 24 hours), indicating limited market activity. The probability would likely increase if the couple demonstrates strong compatibility and gains viewer support, or decrease if other couples establish themselves as more competitive. The resolution depends entirely on how the competition unfolds and viewer voting patterns throughout the remainder of the season. The final episode vote count will definitively settle this market once the show concludes.
- ›Current trading price of 7¢ reflects low confidence in this specific couple finishing exactly third, with modest 24-hour volume suggesting limited trader conviction
- ›Trinity appears in multiple related markets (paired with different partners and different placements), indicating her placement flexibility but uncertainty about final coupling
- ›No recent trading activity detected on the Trinity-Sean contract variant, suggesting reduced market interest in alternative Trinity pairings
- ›Market pricing (6%) places this outcome as a tail probability, substantially lower than implied baseline probability for any random couple in top-3 pool
- ›Resolution depends on show completion and final viewer votes, with actual filming already underway as of the market date
What moved the line
- Jun 22Aniya and KC↓23pp41→18¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24Trinity and Bryce↑21pp54→75¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 23Melanie and Sincere↑20pp30→50¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 19Kayda and Zach↑18pp25→43¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 20Kayda and Zach↓17pp43→26¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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