Will the minimum temperature be 57-58° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 24% across 3 bound outcomes, runner-up at 16%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
63° to 64°
Outcomes
3
winner-take-all
Runner-up
16¢
65° to 66°
Spread
8pp
contested
24h volume
$1K
modest
Closes
Jul 9, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
3 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be 63-64° on Jul 11, 2026?: 63° to 64°
KXLOWTLAX-26JUL11-B63.5
Will the minimum temperature be 65-66° on Jul 11, 2026?: 65° to 66°
KXLOWTLAX-26JUL11-B65.5
Will the minimum temperature be >66° on Jul 11, 2026?: 67° or above
KXLOWTLAX-26JUL11-T66
Analysis
This market estimates a 44% probability that the minimum temperature on June 20, 2026 will fall between 60–61°F at a specific location. The leading outcome at 42¢ suggests most traders expect temperatures near this range, with meaningful probability also assigned to slightly cooler (58–59°F at 33¢) and warmer (62°F+ at 13¢) scenarios. Temperature predictions depend heavily on seasonal weather patterns, proximity to water bodies, urban heat effects, and typical June conditions at the measurement site. The outcome will be determined definitively on June 20, 2026, when the actual minimum temperature is recorded. Traders are pricing in typical early-summer variability; the concentration around 60–61°F reflects historical June norms rather than extreme heat or cold. Movement in contract prices would likely follow updated long-range forecasts, historical precedent comparisons, or shifts in atmospheric conditions as the date approaches.
- ›Historical June 20 minimum temperatures at this location: frequency of outcomes in the 60–61°F band versus 58–59°F or 62°F+ categories
- ›Long-range weather models available 14+ days before June 20: whether forecasters predict near-average, warmer, or cooler conditions
- ›Current atmospheric and sea-surface temperature patterns: how anomalies present now typically influence early-summer minimums at this site
- ›Recent trend in local minimum temperatures: whether the past 5–10 years show a shift from historical norms
- ›Time of day and cloud cover typical for June 20 at measurement location: factors determining overnight low formation
What moved the line
- Jul 1165° to 66°↓19pp61→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 1163° to 64°↑3pp22→25¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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