Will the minimum temperature be >71° on Apr 21, 2026
Leader sits at 34% across 4 bound outcomes, runner-up at 30%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
80° to 81°
Outcomes
4
winner-take-all
Runner-up
30¢
78° to 79°
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$2K
modest
Closes
Jun 26, 2026
0 days
Venue
Kalshi
4 bound
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the minimum temperature
Will the minimum temperature be 76-77° on Jun 26, 2026?: 76° to 77°
KXLOWTMIA-26JUN26-B76.5
Will the minimum temperature be 82-83° on Jun 26, 2026?: 82° to 83°
KXLOWTMIA-26JUN26-B82.5
Will the minimum temperature be 80-81° on Jun 26, 2026?: 80° to 81°
KXLOWTMIA-26JUN26-B80.5
Will the minimum temperature be 78-79° on Jun 26, 2026?: 78° to 79°
KXLOWTMIA-26JUN26-B78.5
Analysis
This contract predicts whether the minimum temperature in a specific location will exceed 71°F on April 21, 2026. The 80% probability reflects the current market consensus that such a temperature is likely, with the leading outcome (78-79°F) priced substantially higher than alternatives. The probability is driven by typical seasonal patterns for late April, regional climate patterns, and historical weather variability for that date and location. The resolution will occur on April 21, 2026, when actual minimum temperature readings are recorded and compared against the contract thresholds. Traders are effectively betting on whether April 21 conditions will fall into the warm range (78-79°F) rather than cooler alternatives (71°F or below, 76-77°F) or unusually warm (80°F+). The contract reflects confidence in above-normal temperatures for that spring date.
- ›Seasonal baseline: Late April typically experiences warming trends in most temperate zones, establishing a natural floor above 71°F
- ›Market concentration: 80% of contract value flows to the 78-79°F outcome, indicating strong consensus on a specific narrow range rather than broader confidence in >71°F
- ›Weather volatility tail risk: Spring weather patterns retain significant uncertainty; unexpected cold fronts or atmospheric anomalies could drive actual temperatures below predicted ranges
- ›Historical frequency data: Local climate records for April 21 over 30+ years would show how often minimum temperatures fall into each contract band
- ›Current date context: As of June 14, 2026, this contract appears misdated or references a past event; resolution mechanics depend on whether readings are historical or forecasted
Recently closed in climate
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- 2026 April 1st, 2nd, 3rd hottest on record?: 4th or lowerlast 97% · 44d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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