Will the S&P/BMV IPC Index be at least MX$67,000 in 2026
Leader sits at 78% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 74%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
At least MX$69,000
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
74¢
At least MX$70,000
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$291
thin orderbook
Closes
Jan 1, 2027
190 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will the S&P/BMV IPC Index be at least MX$
Will the S&P/BMV IPC Index be at least MX$70,000 in 2026?: At least MX$70,000
KXME-26DEC31-70000
Will the S&P/BMV IPC Index be at least MX$74,000 in 2026?: At least MX$74,000
KXME-26DEC31-74000
Will the S&P/BMV IPC Index be at least MX$69,000 in 2026?: At least MX$69,000
KXME-26DEC31-69000
Will the S&P/BMV IPC Index be at least MX$73,000 in 2026?: At least MX$73,000
KXME-26DEC31-73000
Will the S&P/BMV IPC Index be at least MX$71,000 in 2026?: At least MX$71,000
KXME-26DEC31-71000
Will the S&P/BMV IPC Index be at least MX$68,000 in 2026?: At least MX$68,000
KXME-26DEC31-68000
Will the S&P/BMV IPC Index be at least MX$72,000 in 2026?: At least MX$72,000
KXME-26DEC31-72000
Analysis
Markets are pricing an 88% probability that Mexico's S&P/BMV IPC index will close 2026 at or above MX$67,000, reflecting confidence in continued stability or appreciation from mid-2026 levels. The elevated probability suggests traders expect either steady economic conditions or positive momentum through year-end, though the spread across contracts—with lower prices for higher thresholds like MX$71,000 (67%)—indicates meaningful uncertainty about the magnitude of gains. The main drivers are Mexico's macroeconomic resilience, currency stability, and corporate earnings relative to any potential headwinds from U.S. policy shifts, interest rate changes, or regional trade dynamics. Final resolution depends on the index's December 2026 closing level, which will be determined by accumulated economic data, earnings reports, and market sentiment over the remaining six months.
- ›The index needs approximately 1.5-4.5% appreciation from current 2026 mid-year levels to reach the MX$67,000-MX$71,000 range by year-end
- ›Mexican peso strength and U.S. interest rate policy are material factors; currency weakness or Fed rate increases could pressure equity valuations
- ›The 21-percentage-point spread between the MX$67,000 contract (88%) and MX$71,000 contract (67%) indicates market uncertainty about whether gains will be modest or substantial
- ›Trading volume is concentrated in the MX$67,000 and MX$69,000 contracts, suggesting these are viewed as the most probable outcomes
- ›Corporate earnings and economic growth data released through Q3 and Q4 2026 will incrementally shift probabilities as resolution approaches
What moved the line
- Jun 24At least MX$74,000↓15pp42→27¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24At least MX$70,000↑11pp71→82¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 25At least MX$69,000↓6pp80→74¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24At least MX$69,000↑4pp76→80¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in markets
- Will MicroStrategy sell any Bitcoin?last 6% · 1d
- Will OpenAI go public?last 12% · 1d
- Will SpaceX IPO in 2026?last 6% · 1d
- How many Gold Cards will Trump sell in 2026?: 0last 61% · 7d
- What will Crude Oil (CL) settle at in June?: $77-$84last 35% · 7d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In markets
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.