Will Detroit be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
20%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$11K
5 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
190 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kansas City be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Kansas City
Will Kansas City be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Kansas City
KXMLBALCENT-26-KC
Cluster 2
Will Cleveland be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Cleveland
Will Cleveland be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Cleveland
KXMLBALCENT-26-CLE
Cluster 3
Will Chicago WS be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Chicago WS
Will Chicago WS be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Chicago WS
KXMLBALCENT-26-CWS
Cluster 4
Will Detroit be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Detroit
Will Detroit be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Detroit
KXMLBALCENT-26-DET
Cluster 5
Will Minnesota be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Minnesota
Will Minnesota be the 2026 AL Central Division Winner: Minnesota
KXMLBALCENT-26-MIN
Analysis
This probability reflects the likelihood that Detroit finishes with the best record in the American League Central Division during the 2026 MLB regular season. At 22%, the market suggests Detroit has a meaningful but not dominant chance at the divisional title. The assessment likely weighs Detroit's roster composition and recent performance trends against stronger competitors in the division. Key factors that would shift this probability include mid-season trade activity, injury developments among starting players, and how the team performs through the summer months. The divisional race will gradually resolve as games are played throughout the season, with the outcome determined by final regular season records in early October 2026.
- ›Detroit's current win-loss record and run differential compared to other AL Central teams as of early May 2026
- ›Whether Detroit makes significant trades at the deadline in late July to bolster roster competitiveness
- ›Injury status of key position players and pitchers expected to anchor the rotation through the season
- ›Win rate trends for Detroit relative to division rivals (Cleveland, Chicago, Kansas City, Minnesota) during the summer months
- ›Performance of Detroit's rotation and bullpen in high-leverage situations during division matchups
What moved the line
- May 6Detroit↓19pp49→30¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Kansas City↑12pp14→26¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Cleveland↑8pp19→27¢ · Kalshi
- May 6Minnesota↑6pp3→9¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- What will Donald Trump say during CNBClast 95% · 1d
- Balance of Power: 2026 Midterms: D Senate, R Houselast 3% · 1d
- Will any member of Trump's Cabinet leave before Aug 2026last 85% · 1d
- What will any participating candidate say during South Carolina GOP gubernatorial debatenolast 7% · 1d
- FC Gifu vs. Matsumoto Yamaga FC - More Marketslast 74% · 2d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 1 min ago.