Will Tampa Bay be the 2026 AL East Division Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 46% across 2 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
46%
2 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
2 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
140 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
2 clusters across 2 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Tampa Bay be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: Tampa Bay
Will Tampa Bay be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: Tampa Bay
KXMLBALEAST-26-TB
Cluster 2
Will New York Y be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: New York Y
Will New York Y be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: New York Y
KXMLBALEAST-26-NYY
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Tampa Bay has a 20% chance of winning the 2026 AL East Division in Major League Baseball. The relatively low probability reflects the competitive strength of other AL East franchises and Tampa Bay's recent roster composition. Key drivers include Tampa Bay's ability to maintain competitive pitching and hitting performance through the season, and how their roster changes compare to division rivals like Baltimore, Boston, New York Yankees, and Toronto. The primary uncertainty resolves gradually throughout the 2026 MLB season, with critical waypoints occurring at the trade deadline (late July) and the final regular season standings in early October. Early-season performance and injury status of core players will provide the most important signals for updating this probability.
- ›Tampa Bay's current payroll and roster composition relative to other AL East teams entering 2026
- ›The team's pitching staff performance and injury history, particularly among starters
- ›Trade deadline activity and roster adjustments by Tampa Bay and competing AL East franchises
- ›Division rivals' roster strength and management decisions during the offseason and in-season
- ›Tampa Bay's actual win-loss record and games-behind metric at key checkpoints (May 31, July 31, and September 30)
What moved the line
- Jun 21New York Y↓9pp77→68¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 28Tampa Bay↑5pp18→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 22New York Y↑5pp68→73¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 28New York Y↓5pp72→67¢ · Kalshi
- Jun 24New York Y↑4pp71→75¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
Lateral coverage
Thin contract — here's where the deeper coverage is.
This page aggregates 2 contracts (46% headline). At low contract count, the price reflects two participants’ opinions, not a market consensus. The links below are heavier related questions where the orderbook signal is real.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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