Will Tampa Bay be the 2026 AL East Division Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$8K
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
83 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Boston be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: Boston
Will Boston be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: Boston
KXMLBALEAST-26-BOS
Cluster 2
Will New York Y be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: New York Y
Will New York Y be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: New York Y
KXMLBALEAST-26-NYY
Cluster 3
Will Tampa Bay be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: Tampa Bay
Will Tampa Bay be the 2026 AL East Division Winner: Tampa Bay
KXMLBALEAST-26-TB
Analysis
This probability represents the market's assessment that Tampa Bay has a 20% chance of winning the 2026 AL East Division in Major League Baseball. The relatively low probability reflects the competitive strength of other AL East franchises and Tampa Bay's recent roster composition. Key drivers include Tampa Bay's ability to maintain competitive pitching and hitting performance through the season, and how their roster changes compare to division rivals like Baltimore, Boston, New York Yankees, and Toronto. The primary uncertainty resolves gradually throughout the 2026 MLB season, with critical waypoints occurring at the trade deadline (late July) and the final regular season standings in early October. Early-season performance and injury status of core players will provide the most important signals for updating this probability.
- ›Tampa Bay's current payroll and roster composition relative to other AL East teams entering 2026
- ›The team's pitching staff performance and injury history, particularly among starters
- ›Trade deadline activity and roster adjustments by Tampa Bay and competing AL East franchises
- ›Division rivals' roster strength and management decisions during the offseason and in-season
- ›Tampa Bay's actual win-loss record and games-behind metric at key checkpoints (May 31, July 31, and September 30)
What moved the line
- Aug 21Tampa Bay↓7pp69→62¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 22New York Y↑6pp23→29¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 20Tampa Bay↓5pp74→69¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 21New York Y↑4pp19→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 17Tampa Bay↓3pp79→76¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will The Warehouse Project at Depot Mayfield be in the Top 5 on Dj Mag Top 100 Clubslast 50% · 2d
- How many times will Donald Trump visit Trump National Golf Club Washington, D.C. in Aug 2026last 38% · 3d
- Will Trump nominate Stephen Hahn as FDA commissionerlast 49% · 4d
- Will SpaceXAI release Grok 4.7 before Aug 21, 2026last 45% · 4d
- Will James Fishback concede defeat in the the 2026 Florida gubernatorial race before Aug 20, 2026last 79% · 5d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.