Will Los Angeles A be the 2026 AL West Division Winner
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 33% across 3 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
33%
3 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$5K
3 contracts
Closes
Nov 15, 2026
99 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
3 clusters across 3 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Houston be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Houston
Will Houston be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Houston
KXMLBALWEST-26-HOU
Cluster 2
Will Seattle be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Seattle
Will Seattle be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Seattle
KXMLBALWEST-26-SEA
Cluster 3
Will Texas be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Texas
Will Texas be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Texas
KXMLBALWEST-26-TEX
Analysis
This represents the estimated likelihood that the Los Angeles Angels will finish with the best regular-season record in MLB's American League West division by season's end. At 23%, the market implies the Angels are among the longer-shot contenders in a competitive division. The probability reflects pre-season expectations about roster construction and performance relative to divisional rivals like Houston, Texas, and Oakland. Key factors affecting this estimate include the Angels' actual win-loss record as games accumulate through the 2026 season, comparative strength of division competitors, and any mid-season roster changes via trade or injury. The resolution will occur when the regular season concludes in early October 2026, at which point final division standings will be definitively established.
- ›The Angels' cumulative win-loss record through the 2026 MLB regular season relative to other AL West teams
- ›Injury status and performance of key Angels position players and pitchers compared to division rivals
- ›Trade activity and roster adjustments made by all five AL West teams during the season
- ›Run differential and strength of schedule dynamics as the season progresses
- ›Head-to-head record outcomes between the Angels and other AL West contenders throughout the season
What moved the line
- Aug 5Seattle↓9pp37→28¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Houston↑8pp28→36¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1Seattle↓8pp31→23¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 3Texas↓8pp29→21¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 4Texas↓7pp21→14¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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