SimpleFunctions
5 contractsKalshirefreshed 7 min agoCloses Jun 29, 2028 · 788d3pp · 14h

Will Los Angeles A be the 2026 AL West Division Winner

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 20% across 5 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

20%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

20%

5 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

−3pp

14h ago

24h volume

$13K

5 contracts

Closes

Jun 29, 2028

788 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 23% (26 days, 26 points)Aggregate: 23% on 2026-05-03
Aggregate of 5 contracts · 26d

Bracket families

5 clusters across 5 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Seattle be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Seattle

1 contract$4K

Cluster 2

Will Los Angeles A be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Los Angeles

1 contract$4K

Cluster 3

Will A's be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: A's

1 contract$3K

Cluster 4

Will Houston be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Houston

1 contract$2K

Cluster 5

Will Texas be the 2026 AL West Division Winner: Texas

1 contract$773

Analysis

This represents the estimated likelihood that the Los Angeles Angels will finish with the best regular-season record in MLB's American League West division by season's end. At 23%, the market implies the Angels are among the longer-shot contenders in a competitive division. The probability reflects pre-season expectations about roster construction and performance relative to divisional rivals like Houston, Texas, and Oakland. Key factors affecting this estimate include the Angels' actual win-loss record as games accumulate through the 2026 season, comparative strength of division competitors, and any mid-season roster changes via trade or injury. The resolution will occur when the regular season concludes in early October 2026, at which point final division standings will be definitively established.

  • The Angels' cumulative win-loss record through the 2026 MLB regular season relative to other AL West teams
  • Injury status and performance of key Angels position players and pitchers compared to division rivals
  • Trade activity and roster adjustments made by all five AL West teams during the season
  • Run differential and strength of schedule dynamics as the season progresses
  • Head-to-head record outcomes between the Angels and other AL West contenders throughout the season

What moved the line

  • May 3A's4pp1713¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30Texas4pp2521¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 26Seattle3pp4346¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30Seattle3pp4649¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 30A's3pp1518¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

More like this

Adjacent prediction questions.

How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.