Will Atlanta have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$4K
4 contracts
Closes
Oct 29, 2026
179 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Los Angeles D have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Cluster 2
Will New York Y have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will New York Y have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: New York Y
KXMLBBESTRECORD-26-NYY
Cluster 3
Will Atlanta have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will Atlanta have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Atlanta
KXMLBBESTRECORD-26-ATL
Cluster 4
Will Detroit have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season
Will Detroit have the best record in Pro Baseball in the 2026 regular season?: Detroit
KXMLBBESTRECORD-26-DET
Analysis
The Atlanta Braves have a 19% estimated probability of finishing the 2026 MLB regular season with the best record. This represents market expectations that while the Braves remain competitive, other teams—particularly the Los Angeles Dodgers (29%) and New York Yankees (14%)—are viewed as more likely to secure the top record. The probability reflects the Braves' recent competitive performance balanced against uncertainty about player health, roster changes, and divisional competition. The market will gradually resolve this question through the course of the 2026 season, with final outcomes determined when the regular season concludes in late September. Key catalysts include preseason transactions, opening day roster construction, and performance trends through April and May that will indicate whether Atlanta maintains championship-caliber strength.
- ›Atlanta's year-to-date performance and win-loss record relative to other AL/NL contenders through May 2026
- ›Player availability and health status, particularly for key position players and starting pitchers on the Braves roster
- ›Los Angeles Dodgers' market probability of 29% indicates the market favors them significantly; Atlanta must outpace them in actual wins
- ›Divisional competition within the NL East and overall strength of schedule remaining in the 2026 season
- ›Trade deadline activity and roster adjustments across MLB in late July that could shift competitive balance
What moved the line
- May 3Los Angeles D↓18pp46→28¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Los Angeles D↓8pp54→46¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30Atlanta↑7pp10→17¢ · Kalshi
- Apr 30New York Y↑6pp6→12¢ · Kalshi
- May 1Los Angeles D↓5pp59→54¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 7 min ago.