Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Sep 1, 2026
Leader sits at 71% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 67%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Nov 1, 2027
Outcomes
6
winner-take-all
Runner-up
67¢
Before May 1, 2027
Spread
4pp
contested
24h volume
$0
thin orderbook
Closes
Nov 1, 2027
476 days
Venue
Kalshi
6 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before
Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2026?: Before Aug 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-LDEVRIES-26AUG01
Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2027?: Before Nov 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-LDEVRIES-27NOV01
Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2027?: Before May 1, 2027
KXMLBDEBUT-LDEVRIES-27MAY01
Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Sep 1, 2026?: Before Sep 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-LDEVRIES-26SEP01
Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Oct 1, 2026?: Before Oct 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-LDEVRIES-26OCT01
Will Leo De Vries play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2026?: Before Nov 1, 2026
KXMLBDEBUT-LDEVRIES-26NOV01
Analysis
This 88% probability represents the aggregated market estimate that Leo De Vries will appear in at least one MLB game before November 1, 2027. The elevated probability reflects confidence in his eventual debut, though the sharp price decline across earlier deadlines (7¢ for debut before July 13 vs. 88¢ for the full-year window) indicates uncertainty about timing. Key drivers include his current prospect status, organizational depth chart position, and injury history. The most significant near-term catalyst will be roster moves and call-up decisions during the 2026 season, particularly around trade deadlines and September roster expansions when teams typically activate additional players.
- ›Current market prices on earlier dates (7¢ for July 13 debut) suggest low probability of imminent call-up, conflicting with the high probability for the extended November 2027 window
- ›The 49¢ price for before Nov 1, 2026 indicates roughly even odds for debut within the remainder of the 2026 season
- ›Prospect rankings, organizational depth, and injury status will determine whether De Vries receives playing time or remains in minor league development
- ›September roster expansion (typically late August/early September) historically creates opportunities for prospect debuts
- ›Trade activity and organizational changes before the August 31 deadline could accelerate or delay his path to MLB competition
What moved the line
- Jul 10Before Aug 1, 2026↓6pp13→7¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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