Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2030
Leader sits at 94% across 8 bound outcomes, runner-up at 93%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
Before Aug 1, 2030
Outcomes
8
winner-take-all
Runner-up
93¢
Before Nov 1, 2030
Spread
1pp
contested
24h volume
$182
thin orderbook
Closes
—
not derived
Venue
Kalshi
8 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before
Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2029?: Before May 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-VLACKEY-29MAY01
Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2029?: Before Nov 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-VLACKEY-29NOV01
Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before May 1, 2030?: Before May 1, 2030
KXMLBDEBUT-VLACKEY-30MAY01
Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2029?: Before Aug 1, 2029
KXMLBDEBUT-VLACKEY-29AUG01
Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2031?: Before Nov 1, 2031
KXMLBDEBUT-VLACKEY-31NOV01
Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Aug 1, 2030?: Before Aug 1, 2030
KXMLBDEBUT-VLACKEY-30AUG01
Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2030?: Before Nov 1, 2030
KXMLBDEBUT-VLACKEY-30NOV01
Will Vahn Lackey play in a game for any team in the MLB before Nov 1, 2028?: Before Nov 1, 2028
KXMLBDEBUT-VLACKEY-28NOV01
Analysis
This market indicates an 93% probability that Vahn Lackey will appear in at least one MLB game before November 1, 2030. The high confidence reflects typical career progression timelines for prospects who reach the MLB pipeline, with most players either debuting or being eliminated from contention within a 4-year window. Market prices suggest increasing uncertainty as the deadline extends further, with the probability declining only slightly from an 87% forecast for May 2030 to 93% by November 2030—indicating some skepticism about whether Lackey will sustain eligibility through the full period. The primary factors driving this probability are Lackey's current status in professional baseball development, injury risk, and performance benchmarks at lower levels that typically precede promotion.
- ›Current age, minor league level, and projected timeline to MLB readiness based on organizational depth charts and published prospect rankings
- ›Historical debut rates for pitchers at Lackey's development stage, accounting for injury, performance plateaus, and organizational decisions to promote or decline prospects
- ›Team roster composition and availability of positions entering 2029-2030 season, which determines whether a slot exists for a debut opportunity
- ›Significant injury or performance regression documented in official minor league statistics that would materially reduce promotion probability
- ›Organizational changes, trades, or salary cap pressures that might accelerate or delay prospects entering the active roster
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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