Will Golden State Gold win the Los Angeles L vs Golden State Gold Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 3, 2026
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 38% across 20 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
38%
20 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
20 contracts
Closes
Jul 25, 2026
15 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 20 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Denver win
Will Denver win the Houston vs Denver Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026?: Denver
KXNBASUMMERGAME-26JUL10HOUDEN-DEN
Will Denver win the Denver vs Minnesota Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026?: Denver
KXNBASUMMERGAME-26JUL11DENMIN-DEN
Cluster 2
Will Brooklyn win
Will Brooklyn win the Brooklyn vs New York Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026?: Brooklyn
KXNBASUMMERGAME-26JUL10BKNNYK-BKN
Will Brooklyn win the Atlanta vs Brooklyn Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026?: Brooklyn
KXNBASUMMERGAME-26JUL11ATLBKN-BKN
Cluster 3
Will Chicago win the Chicago vs Memphis Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 4
Will Boston win the Boston vs Toronto Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 5
Will Los Angeles L win the Oklahoma City vs Los Angeles L Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 6
Will Milwaukee win the Milwaukee vs Miami Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 7
Will Miami win the Milwaukee vs Miami Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 8
Will Oklahoma City win the Oklahoma City vs Los Angeles L Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 9
Will New York win the Brooklyn vs New York Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 10
Will Cleveland win the Cleveland vs Indiana Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 11
Will Toronto win the Boston vs Toronto Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 12
Will Memphis win the Chicago vs Memphis Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 13
Will Washington win the Sacramento vs Washington Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 12, 2026
Cluster 14
Will Portland win the Portland vs Phoenix Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 15
Will Indiana win the Cleveland vs Indiana Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 16
Will Houston win the Houston vs Denver Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 17
Will Phoenix win the Portland vs Phoenix Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 10, 2026
Cluster 18
Will Atlanta win the Atlanta vs Brooklyn Summer League game originally scheduled for Jul 11, 2026
Analysis
This market reflects a near-even assessment of whether Golden State Gold will defeat Los Angeles L in their Summer League matchup on July 3, 2026. The 49% probability indicates substantial uncertainty about the outcome, with trading showing meaningful disagreement—the companion contract for Los Angeles L winning trades at 51%, suggesting traders view both teams as roughly evenly matched. Summer League outcomes are driven primarily by roster composition, player health and availability, coaching decisions about playing time, and momentum from recent performances. The game itself serves as the resolution event, making actual tipoff and final score the key catalyst that will determine the contract's outcome.
- ›Golden State Gold contract trades at 45¢ while Los Angeles L contract trades at 51¢, indicating near-parity but slight lean toward Los Angeles L
- ›Summer League games feature largely young, prospects and reserve players with less predictable performance patterns than regular season NBA contests
- ›Trading volume on the Golden State contract ($298 24h vol) substantially exceeds the Los Angeles L contract ($8 24h vol), suggesting more active interest in one side
- ›Both teams' current roster availability and which prospects are playing would meaningfully influence win probability but appear stable enough for traders to price near even odds
- ›Game occurs on July 3, 2026—the scheduled date provides clear resolution point with no apparent postponement or cancellation indicators in current market pricing
What moved the line
- Jul 8Memphis↑38pp11→49¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Brooklyn↑28pp19→47¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Cleveland↑27pp15→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Oklahoma City↑20pp14→34¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 9Brooklyn↑20pp23→43¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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