Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 19 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
9%
19 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$482
19 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
149 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
19 clusters across 19 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Chris Getz win Executive of the Year
Will Chris Getz win Executive of the Year?: Chris Getz
KXMLBEOTY-26-CGET
Cluster 2
Will Anirudh Kilambi win Executive of the Year
Will Anirudh Kilambi win Executive of the Year?: Anirudh Kilambi
KXMLBEOTY-26-AKIL
Cluster 3
Will A. J. Preller win Executive of the Year
Will A. J. Preller win Executive of the Year?: A. J. Preller
KXMLBEOTY-26-APRE
Cluster 4
Will Brian Cashman win Executive of the Year
Will Brian Cashman win Executive of the Year?: Brian Cashman
KXMLBEOTY-26-BCAS
Cluster 5
Will Ben Cherington win Executive of the Year
Will Ben Cherington win Executive of the Year?: Ben Cherington
KXMLBEOTY-26-BCHE
Cluster 6
Will Brandon Gomes win Executive of the Year
Will Brandon Gomes win Executive of the Year?: Brandon Gomes
KXMLBEOTY-26-BGOM
Cluster 7
Will Brad Meador win Executive of the Year
Will Brad Meador win Executive of the Year?: Brad Meador
KXMLBEOTY-26-BMEA
Cluster 8
Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year
Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year?: Carter Hawkins
KXMLBEOTY-26-CHAW
Cluster 9
Will Dana Brown win Executive of the Year
Will Dana Brown win Executive of the Year?: Dana Brown
KXMLBEOTY-26-DBRO
Cluster 10
Will David Frost win Executive of the Year
Will David Frost win Executive of the Year?: David Frost
KXMLBEOTY-26-DFRO
Cluster 11
Will Erik Neander win Executive of the Year
Will Erik Neander win Executive of the Year?: Erik Neander
KXMLBEOTY-26-ENEA
Cluster 12
Will Josh Byrnes win Executive of the Year
Will Josh Byrnes win Executive of the Year?: Josh Byrnes
KXMLBEOTY-26-JBYR
Cluster 13
Will J. J. Picollo win Executive of the Year
Will J. J. Picollo win Executive of the Year?: J. J. Picollo
KXMLBEOTY-26-JPIC
Cluster 14
Will Matt Arnold win Executive of the Year
Will Matt Arnold win Executive of the Year?: Matt Arnold
KXMLBEOTY-26-MARN
Cluster 15
Will Mike Chernoff win Executive of the Year
Will Mike Chernoff win Executive of the Year?: Mike Chernoff
KXMLBEOTY-26-MCHE
Cluster 16
Will Mike Elias win Executive of the Year
Will Mike Elias win Executive of the Year?: Mike Elias
KXMLBEOTY-26-MELI
Cluster 17
Will Mike Girsch win Executive of the Year
Will Mike Girsch win Executive of the Year?: Mike Girsch
KXMLBEOTY-26-MGIR
Cluster 18
Will Mike Hazen win Executive of the Year
Will Mike Hazen win Executive of the Year?: Mike Hazen
KXMLBEOTY-26-MHAZ
Cluster 19
Will Perry Minasian win Executive of the Year
Will Perry Minasian win Executive of the Year?: Perry Minasian
KXMLBEOTY-26-PMIN
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Carter Hawkins will be named Executive of the Year in 2026. At 6%, the market suggests Hawkins is considered a long-shot candidate relative to other tracked executives. The low probability likely reflects limited visibility into his recent performance metrics or comparative standing against better-established executives in the same year. Movement in this probability would depend on major announcements, promotions, or public recognition of significant business accomplishments that distinguish Hawkins from competitors. The resolution hinges on which organization issues the Executive of the Year award and their selection criteria, with the award announcement date serving as the key catalyst for determining the outcome.
- ›Carter Hawkins' current executive position and scope of responsibility compared to other 2026 award candidates
- ›Public announcements or business results attributed to Hawkins between now and the award announcement that would affect his competitive standing
- ›Which Executive of the Year award is being referenced (industry-specific, regional, or national), as different awarding bodies use different selection criteria
- ›The timing and visibility of the award announcement relative to Hawkins' most recent notable achievements or decisions
- ›Historical patterns showing whether career trajectory, tenure, or specific accomplishments most influence Executive of the Year selections for the referenced award
What moved the line
- Jul 7Chris Getz↑4pp7→11¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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