Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 6% across 18 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
6%
18 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
18 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
18 clusters across 18 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will David Frost win Executive of the Year
Will David Frost win Executive of the Year?: David Frost
KXMLBEOTY-26-DFRO
Cluster 2
Will Alex Anthopoulos win Executive of the Year
Will Alex Anthopoulos win Executive of the Year?: Alex Anthopoulos
KXMLBEOTY-26-AANT
Cluster 3
Will Mike Elias win Executive of the Year
Will Mike Elias win Executive of the Year?: Mike Elias
KXMLBEOTY-26-MELI
Cluster 4
Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year
Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year?: Carter Hawkins
KXMLBEOTY-26-CHAW
Cluster 5
Will Chris Getz win Executive of the Year
Will Chris Getz win Executive of the Year?: Chris Getz
KXMLBEOTY-26-CGET
Cluster 6
Will Brad Meador win Executive of the Year
Will Brad Meador win Executive of the Year?: Brad Meador
KXMLBEOTY-26-BMEA
Cluster 7
Will Josh Byrnes win Executive of the Year
Will Josh Byrnes win Executive of the Year?: Josh Byrnes
KXMLBEOTY-26-JBYR
Cluster 8
Will J. J. Picollo win Executive of the Year
Will J. J. Picollo win Executive of the Year?: J. J. Picollo
KXMLBEOTY-26-JPIC
Cluster 9
Will Perry Minasian win Executive of the Year
Will Perry Minasian win Executive of the Year?: Perry Minasian
KXMLBEOTY-26-PMIN
Cluster 10
Will Brandon Gomes win Executive of the Year
Will Brandon Gomes win Executive of the Year?: Brandon Gomes
KXMLBEOTY-26-BGOM
Cluster 11
Will Matt Arnold win Executive of the Year
Will Matt Arnold win Executive of the Year?: Matt Arnold
KXMLBEOTY-26-MARN
Cluster 12
Will David Stearns win Executive of the Year
Will David Stearns win Executive of the Year?: David Stearns
KXMLBEOTY-26-DSTE
Cluster 13
Will Ben Cherington win Executive of the Year
Will Ben Cherington win Executive of the Year?: Ben Cherington
KXMLBEOTY-26-BCHE
Cluster 14
Will A. J. Preller win Executive of the Year
Will A. J. Preller win Executive of the Year?: A. J. Preller
KXMLBEOTY-26-APRE
Cluster 15
Will Mike Girsch win Executive of the Year
Will Mike Girsch win Executive of the Year?: Mike Girsch
KXMLBEOTY-26-MGIR
Cluster 16
Will Ross Fenstermaker win Executive of the Year
Will Ross Fenstermaker win Executive of the Year?: Ross Fenstermaker
KXMLBEOTY-26-RFEN
Cluster 17
Will Ross Atkins win Executive of the Year
Will Ross Atkins win Executive of the Year?: Ross Atkins
KXMLBEOTY-26-RATK
Cluster 18
Will Anirudh Kilambi win Executive of the Year
Will Anirudh Kilambi win Executive of the Year?: Anirudh Kilambi
KXMLBEOTY-26-AKIL
Analysis
This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Carter Hawkins will be named Executive of the Year in 2026. At 6%, the market suggests Hawkins is considered a long-shot candidate relative to other tracked executives. The low probability likely reflects limited visibility into his recent performance metrics or comparative standing against better-established executives in the same year. Movement in this probability would depend on major announcements, promotions, or public recognition of significant business accomplishments that distinguish Hawkins from competitors. The resolution hinges on which organization issues the Executive of the Year award and their selection criteria, with the award announcement date serving as the key catalyst for determining the outcome.
- ›Carter Hawkins' current executive position and scope of responsibility compared to other 2026 award candidates
- ›Public announcements or business results attributed to Hawkins between now and the award announcement that would affect his competitive standing
- ›Which Executive of the Year award is being referenced (industry-specific, regional, or national), as different awarding bodies use different selection criteria
- ›The timing and visibility of the award announcement relative to Hawkins' most recent notable achievements or decisions
- ›Historical patterns showing whether career trajectory, tenure, or specific accomplishments most influence Executive of the Year selections for the referenced award
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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