SimpleFunctions
19 source contracts·Kalshi 19·refreshed just now·Closes Dec 8, 2026 · 149d

Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 19 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

9%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

9%

19 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$482

19 contracts

Closes

Dec 8, 2026

149 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 11% (5 days, 5 points)Aggregate: 11% on 2026-07-07
Aggregate of 19 contracts · 5d

Bracket families

19 clusters across 19 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Chris Getz win Executive of the Year

1 contract$482

Cluster 2

Will Anirudh Kilambi win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will A. J. Preller win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Brian Cashman win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Ben Cherington win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will Brandon Gomes win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Brad Meador win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Carter Hawkins win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Dana Brown win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will David Frost win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 11

Will Erik Neander win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 12

Will Josh Byrnes win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 13

Will J. J. Picollo win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 14

Will Matt Arnold win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 15

Will Mike Chernoff win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 16

Will Mike Elias win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 17

Will Mike Girsch win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 18

Will Mike Hazen win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Cluster 19

Will Perry Minasian win Executive of the Year

1 contract$0

Analysis

This probability represents the estimated likelihood that Carter Hawkins will be named Executive of the Year in 2026. At 6%, the market suggests Hawkins is considered a long-shot candidate relative to other tracked executives. The low probability likely reflects limited visibility into his recent performance metrics or comparative standing against better-established executives in the same year. Movement in this probability would depend on major announcements, promotions, or public recognition of significant business accomplishments that distinguish Hawkins from competitors. The resolution hinges on which organization issues the Executive of the Year award and their selection criteria, with the award announcement date serving as the key catalyst for determining the outcome.

  • Carter Hawkins' current executive position and scope of responsibility compared to other 2026 award candidates
  • Public announcements or business results attributed to Hawkins between now and the award announcement that would affect his competitive standing
  • Which Executive of the Year award is being referenced (industry-specific, regional, or national), as different awarding bodies use different selection criteria
  • The timing and visibility of the award announcement relative to Hawkins' most recent notable achievements or decisions
  • Historical patterns showing whether career trajectory, tenure, or specific accomplishments most influence Executive of the Year selections for the referenced award

What moved the line

  • Jul 7Chris Getz4pp711¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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