Will Cody Bellinger win the AL Gold Glove for Left Field in the 2026 season
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 24% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
24%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$602
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
81 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Dillon Dingler win the AL Gold Glove for Catcher in the 2026 season
Will Dillon Dingler win the AL Gold Glove for Catcher in the 2026 season?: Dillon Dingler
KXMLBGG-26ALC-DDINGLER13
Cluster 2
Will Alex Bregman win the NL Gold Glove for Third Baseman in the 2026 season
Will Alex Bregman win the NL Gold Glove for Third Baseman in the 2026 season?: Alex Bregman
KXMLBGG-26NL3B-ABREGMAN3
Cluster 3
Will Pete Crow-Armstrong win the NL Gold Glove for Center Field in the 2026 season
Cluster 4
Will Matt Olson win the NL Gold Glove for First Baseman in the 2026 season
Will Matt Olson win the NL Gold Glove for First Baseman in the 2026 season?: Matt Olson
KXMLBGG-26NL1B-MOLSON28
Cluster 5
Will Christian Walker win the AL Gold Glove for First Baseman in the 2026 season
Cluster 6
Will Chase Meidroth win the AL Gold Glove for Second Baseman in the 2026 season
Analysis
This market estimates a 6% probability that Cody Bellinger will win the AL Gold Glove for Left Field in 2026, reflecting the consensus view of traders on Kalshi. Bellinger, who plays for the Houston Astros, would need to substantially outperform other AL left fielders in defensive metrics—primarily fielding percentage, range factor, and visual defensive plays—to win the award. The Gold Glove voting occurs after the regular season ends and accounts for both objective defensive statistics and subjective evaluation by players, coaches, and media. The probability suggests voters see stronger defensive candidates at the position, though Bellinger's placement on a contending team could factor into voting. This resolves in late October 2026 when voters announce their picks.
- ›Bellinger's defensive statistics in 2026 (fielding percentage, errors, range factor) compared to competitors like Kyle Schwarber, Juan Soto, or other leading AL left fielders
- ›Voting patterns from players, coaches, and media in previous Gold Glove elections and their historical weighting of advanced metrics versus traditional statistics
- ›Whether the Astros' competitive standing influences voter perception of individual players, given that award voting sometimes correlates with team success
- ›Bellinger's recent defensive performance trends and durability—Gold Glove voters typically prioritize players with consistent playing time over a full season
- ›The depth and quality of competing candidates at AL left field and whether a consensus favorite emerges by season's end
What moved the line
- Sep 12Pete Crow-Armstrong↓85pp91→6¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Dillon Dingler↓73pp75→2¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Matt Olson↑42pp5→47¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 12Matt Olson↓39pp44→5¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Chase Meidroth↓38pp41→3¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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