Will Junior Caminero record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 7 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
7 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
−2pp
17h ago
24h volume
$24K
7 contracts
Top contract
13¢
$12K · Kalshi
30-day trend
Bracket families
7 clusters across 7 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Kyle Schwarber record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby
Cluster 2
Will Junior Caminero record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby
Cluster 3
Will Jac Caglianone record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby
Cluster 4
Will Jordan Walker record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby
Cluster 5
Will Munetaka Murakami record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby
Cluster 6
Will Bryce Harper record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby
Cluster 7
Will Ben Rice record the longest home run by distance at the 2026 Home Run Derby
Analysis
This probability represents the chance that Junior Caminero will hit the longest home run by distance at the 2026 MLB Home Run Derby. At 14%, Caminero is positioned as a mid-tier contender, behind Jac Caglianone (22%) but ahead of several other candidates. The derby outcome depends on both sustained power performance during regular season competition and peak form on the specific day of the event. Market participants are currently pricing in higher probabilities for Caglianone, suggesting broader consensus around a smaller group of top power hitters. The primary factors affecting Caminero's probability would be his home run distance data throughout the 2026 season, invitation likelihood to the derby, and comparative performance metrics versus other confirmed or probable participants. The derby will ultimately resolve this uncertainty through direct measurement of home run distances during the competitive event.
- ›Caminero's average home run distance during 2026 regular season compared to other derby-eligible candidates
- ›Whether Caminero receives an invitation to the 2026 Home Run Derby and confirms participation
- ›Historical derby performance patterns showing which players tend to hit the longest drives under controlled derby conditions versus regular season
- ›Relative market probabilities for competing candidates like Caglianone (22%) and Murakami (8%), indicating confidence distribution
- ›Caminero's injury status and playing time during the 2026 season, which affects both derby eligibility and power numbers
What moved the line
- Jul 11Jac Caglianone↑16pp9→25¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Kyle Schwarber↑11pp17→28¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Junior Caminero↑10pp5→15¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Jordan Walker↑9pp14→23¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 11Bryce Harper↓3pp6→3¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 1d
- Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primarylast 8% · 1d
- Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 97% · 1d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 1d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026last 86% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.