Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027
Leader sits at 75% across 7 bound outcomes, runner-up at 6%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.
Leader probability
New York M: New York M
Outcomes
7
winner-take-all
Runner-up
6¢
Philadelphia: Philadelphia
Spread
69pp
dominant leader
24h volume
$602
thin orderbook
Closes
Mar 25, 2027
232 days
Venue
Kalshi
7 bound
30-day trend
Bracket family
How the bracket ladder is priced.
Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.
Cluster 1
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: New York M: New York M
KXMLBNEXTTEAM-27FLINDOR12-NYM
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Tampa Bay: Tampa Bay
KXMLBNEXTTEAM-27FLINDOR12-TB
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: San Francisco: San Francisco
KXMLBNEXTTEAM-27FLINDOR12-SF
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Philadelphia: Philadelphia
KXMLBNEXTTEAM-27FLINDOR12-PHI
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: New York Y: New York Y
KXMLBNEXTTEAM-27FLINDOR12-NYY
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Milwaukee: Milwaukee
KXMLBNEXTTEAM-27FLINDOR12-MIL
Francisco Lindor's next team before Mar 25, 2027: Cleveland: Cleveland
KXMLBNEXTTEAM-27FLINDOR12-CLE
Analysis
This market reflects traders' assessment that Francisco Lindor will be traded to or sign with the New York Mets before March 25, 2027, priced at 69% likelihood. Lindor is currently with the Chicago Cubs and entering the final year of his contract, making him a potential trade candidate before the deadline. The high probability for the Mets reflects their repeated pursuit of star shortstops and reported interest, though the Cubs have shown reluctance to part with their star player. The next major catalyst is the MLB trade deadline in late July 2026, when contending teams finalize roster moves. Market pricing could shift based on trade rumors, team performance, Lindor's stated preferences, and competing offers from other franchises like Tampa Bay and Los Angeles.
- ›Lindor's contract status: final year of deal, making him available at trade deadline without long-term commitment concerns
- ›Cubs' competitive position and willingness to trade: their playoff odds and financial flexibility will influence whether they accept offers
- ›Mets' bidding power: reported interest and payroll capacity versus other contenders pursuing Lindor
- ›Trade deadline timing: July 30-31, 2026 hard deadline creates discrete event for resolution; post-deadline acquisition unlikely before March 2027
- ›Lindor's stated preference: any public comments about preferred destination or willingness to waive no-trade clauses if applicable
What moved the line
- Aug 3New York Y: New York Y↓70pp73→3¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2New York Y: New York Y↑64pp9→73¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 2New York M: New York M↑31pp46→77¢ · Kalshi
- Aug 1New York M: New York M↓18pp64→46¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 30New York M: New York M↓6pp66→60¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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