Will Elly De La Cruz win NL Hank Aaron Award
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 12% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
12%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$0
6 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Shohei Ohtani win NL Hank Aaron Award
Will Shohei Ohtani win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Shohei Ohtani
KXMLBNLHAARON-26-SOHT
Cluster 2
Will Juan Soto win NL Hank Aaron Award
Will Juan Soto win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Juan Soto
KXMLBNLHAARON-26-JSOT
Cluster 3
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win NL Hank Aaron Award
Will Ronald Acuña Jr. win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Ronald Acuña Jr.
KXMLBNLHAARON-26-RACU
Cluster 4
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win NL Hank Aaron Award
Will Fernando Tatis Jr. win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Fernando Tatis Jr.
KXMLBNLHAARON-26-FTAT
Cluster 5
Will Elly De La Cruz win NL Hank Aaron Award
Will Elly De La Cruz win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Elly De La Cruz
KXMLBNLHAARON-26-ECRU
Cluster 6
Will Kyle Schwarber win NL Hank Aaron Award
Will Kyle Schwarber win NL Hank Aaron Award?: Kyle Schwarber
KXMLBNLHAARON-26-KSCH
Analysis
The Hank Aaron Award goes annually to the top offensive player in each league, based on a formula combining batting average, home runs, and RBIs. A 14% probability for Elly De La Cruz suggests moderate long-shot status as of early May 2026. This level reflects her position in the National League's offensive hierarchy at this point in the season. The main drivers are her current statistics relative to peers—particularly home run and RBI totals—and how she performs through the season's remainder. Contract volume on related markets like her MVP odds (4¢) indicates lower trader confidence compared to frontrunners like Shohei Ohtani (42¢ for the NL award). The award will be determined after the regular season concludes in late September, with final statistics providing the decisive data. Injuries, mid-season trades, or significant performance improvements could meaningfully shift her odds.
- ›De La Cruz's current offensive statistics (batting average, home runs, RBIs) relative to other NL position players as of early May
- ›Trading volume and pricing on related markets (her MVP contract at 4¢ vs. Ohtani at 42¢ for NL Hank Aaron Award) indicate relative market confidence levels
- ›Seasonal trajectory—whether De La Cruz's performance accelerates, declines, or plateaus through May-September compared to competitors
- ›Historical volatility of the Hank Aaron Award voting to similar caliber players, as past winners and runners-up provide context for 14% probability placement
- ›Regular season completion date (late September/early October) when final statistics are locked in for award determination
What moved the line
- May 6Shohei Ohtani↓10pp42→32¢ · Kalshi
- May 3Shohei Ohtani↓3pp45→42¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Shohei Ohtani↓3pp32→29¢ · Kalshi
- May 2Juan Soto↑3pp11→14¢ · Kalshi
- May 7Juan Soto↑3pp14→17¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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