Will Tony Vitello win NL MOTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 10% across 10 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
10%
10 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$741
10 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
148 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
10 clusters across 10 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Walt Weiss win NL MOTY
Will Walt Weiss win NL MOTY?: Walt Weiss
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-WWEI
Cluster 2
Will Clayton McCullough win NL MOTY
Will Clayton McCullough win NL MOTY?: Clayton McCullough
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-CMCC
Cluster 3
Will Don Mattingly win NL MOTY: Don Mattingly
Will Don Mattingly win NL MOTY: Don Mattingly
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-DMAT
Cluster 4
Will Terry Francona win NL MOTY
Will Terry Francona win NL MOTY?: Terry Francona
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-TFRA
Cluster 5
Will Warren Schaeffer win NL MOTY
Will Warren Schaeffer win NL MOTY?: Warren Schaeffer
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-WSCH
Cluster 6
Will Dave Roberts win NL MOTY
Will Dave Roberts win NL MOTY?: Dave Roberts
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-DROB
Cluster 7
Will Pat Murphy win NL MOTY
Will Pat Murphy win NL MOTY?: Pat Murphy
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-PMUR
Cluster 8
Will Oliver Marmol win NL MOTY
Will Oliver Marmol win NL MOTY?: Oliver Marmol
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-OMAR
Cluster 9
Will Craig Stammen win NL MOTY
Will Craig Stammen win NL MOTY?: Craig Stammen
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-CSTA
Cluster 10
Will Tony Vitello win NL MOTY
Will Tony Vitello win NL MOTY?: Tony Vitello
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-TVIT
Analysis
This probability reflects the chance that Tony Vitello, manager of the Miami Marlins, wins National League Manager of the Year in 2026. At 10%, the market views him as a significant long-shot compared to frontrunners like Walt Weiss (26%). Vitello's odds reflect both the difficulty of winning awards in a competitive league and Miami's position as a rebuilding franchise unlikely to contend for playoff spots. The main factors driving this low probability are the Marlins' expected win total and divisional competitiveness in the NL East. Manager of the Year voting typically favors leaders of overperforming or surprising teams, or managers whose rosters compete for playoff positions. The resolution of this market depends entirely on regular season performance and voting outcomes in October 2026, after the MLB regular season concludes. Vitello's odds could shift significantly if Miami unexpectedly contends or demonstrates notable improvement relative to preseason expectations.
- ›Miami's 2026 projected win total relative to preseason expectations—overperformance typically drives MOTY voting
- ›Competitive performance by other NL managers, particularly Walt Weiss and the Rockies, who currently lead probability estimates
- ›Whether the Marlins secure a playoff berth or compete seriously in the NL East, which would increase Vitello's credibility with voters
- ›Vitello's track record managing player development and in-game decision-making relative to peer managers
- ›October voting results by BBWAA members, which ultimately determine the award winner
What moved the line
- Jul 6Clayton McCullough↑13pp13→26¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Don Mattingly↑9pp7→16¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Walt Weiss↑8pp14→22¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 7Don Mattingly↑8pp16→24¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 8Don Mattingly↓7pp24→17¢ · Kalshi
Recently closed in general
- Will Xavier Becerra finish 3rd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 3% · 1d
- Who will advance in the 2026 CA-48 primarylast 8% · 1d
- Will Chad Bianco finish 2nd in the 2026 California gubernatorial primarylast 97% · 1d
- Will it be reported by any of the Source Agencies that Graham Platner officially withdraws from the Maine Senate race before Jul 11, 2026last 96% · 1d
- Will the 30Y U.S. Treasury yield be above 4.94% on Jul 6, 2026last 86% · 3d
These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
More like this
Adjacent prediction questions.
In general
How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: just now.