Will Tony Vitello win NL MOTY
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 19% across 5 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
19%
5 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$2K
5 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
78 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
5 clusters across 5 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Craig Stammen win NL MOTY
Will Craig Stammen win NL MOTY?: Craig Stammen
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-CSTA
Cluster 2
Will Pat Murphy win NL MOTY
Will Pat Murphy win NL MOTY?: Pat Murphy
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-PMUR
Cluster 3
Will Walt Weiss win NL MOTY
Will Walt Weiss win NL MOTY?: Walt Weiss
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-WWEI
Cluster 4
Will Terry Francona win NL MOTY
Will Terry Francona win NL MOTY?: Terry Francona
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-TFRA
Cluster 5
Will Warren Schaeffer win NL MOTY
Will Warren Schaeffer win NL MOTY?: Warren Schaeffer
KXMLBNLMOTY-26-WSCH
Analysis
Tony Vitello's 8% probability of winning National League Manager of the Year reflects market expectations that he is a long-shot candidate compared to frontrunners like Walt Weiss (25%). Manager of the Year voting typically rewards significant overperformance relative to preseason expectations, playoff seeding improvements, or notable turnarounds. Vitello's chances would be influenced by Tennessee baseball's regular-season performance through late September, his team's final standings relative to projected projections, and whether his squad secures a playoff berth. The probability will primarily be resolved following the MLB regular season conclusion in late September 2026, when voters cast ballots based on teams' final records and individual manager performance narratives. Market interest remains relatively low across most non-frontrunner candidates, as indicated by minimal trading volume on contracts below 10%, suggesting limited conviction in outlier outcomes.
- ›Vitello's team's final regular-season record and playoff qualification status relative to preseason expectations
- ›Comparative overperformance of other NL managers, particularly Weiss and Kelly who command significantly higher probabilities
- ›Voting patterns favoring managers whose teams exceed projection models or experience notable mid-season turnarounds
- ›Trading volume concentration on Weiss contract ($683 24h vol) versus minimal activity on Vitello contract suggests market consensus on frontrunner separation
- ›Lack of recent volume on lower-probability contracts indicates established market consensus rather than shifting expectations
What moved the line
- Sep 17Pat Murphy↑18pp54→72¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Walt Weiss↓4pp20→16¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Craig Stammen↓3pp4→1¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 18Pat Murphy↓3pp72→69¢ · Kalshi
- Sep 17Walt Weiss↓3pp23→20¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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