Will Juan Soto win NL MVP
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 21% across 4 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
21%
4 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$1K
4 contracts
Closes
Dec 8, 2026
213 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
4 clusters across 4 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Matt Olson win NL MVP
Will Matt Olson win NL MVP?: Matt Olson
KXMLBNLMVP-26-MOLS
Cluster 2
Will Elly De La Cruz win NL MVP
Will Elly De La Cruz win NL MVP?: Elly De La Cruz
KXMLBNLMVP-26-ECRU
Cluster 3
Will Shohei Ohtani win NL MVP
Will Shohei Ohtani win NL MVP?: Shohei Ohtani
KXMLBNLMVP-26-SOHT
Cluster 4
Will Francisco Lindor win NL MVP
Will Francisco Lindor win NL MVP?: Francisco Lindor
KXMLBNLMVP-26-FLIN
Analysis
Juan Soto currently has a 20% implied probability of winning the National League MVP award in the 2026 MLB season. This reflects expectations about his offensive production relative to competitors during the regular season. The probability is influenced by two primary considerations: Soto's historical performance and injury status through the season, and the strength of competing candidates across National League teams. The MVP award will be determined by voting after the regular season concludes in late September, with results announced in November 2026. This timing means current probabilities reflect pre-season expectations before games are played and actual performance data accumulates.
- ›Soto's batting average, home run total, and other offensive statistics relative to other NL candidates by season's end
- ›Playing time availability—any significant injury or time missed would materially reduce MVP chances compared to healthier competitors
- ›Relative strength of competing NL candidates' seasons and whether a consensus frontrunner emerges by late summer
- ›Team's playoff positioning and narrative factors voters typically consider when comparing similarly-performing players
- ›Historical precedent showing MVP voting often favors higher-profile or higher-visibility competitors on winning teams
What moved the line
- May 6Matt Olson↑6pp3→9¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
Last updated on this page: 3 min ago.