SimpleFunctions
10 source contracts·Kalshi 10·refreshed just now·Closes Jan 1, 2027 · 189d

Will Beyoncé appear in mobile game advertisement this year

Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 9% across 10 Kalshi contracts.

Implied probability

9%
0%50%100%

Kalshi

9%

10 contracts

Polymarket

not bound

Cross-venue gap

single venue

24h move

no pin

24h volume

$11

10 contracts

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

189 days

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayAggregate: 4% (15 days, 15 points)Aggregate: 4% on 2026-06-24
Aggregate of 10 contracts · 15d

Bracket families

10 clusters across 10 contracts.

These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.

Cluster 1

Will Shaquille O'Neal appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$11

Cluster 2

Will Beyoncé appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 3

Will Dua Lipa appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 4

Will Jay-Z appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 5

Will Paul George appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 6

Will The Rock appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 7

Will Scarlett Johansson appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 8

Will Selena Gomez appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 9

Will Taylor Swift appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$0

Cluster 10

Will Timothée Chalamet appear in mobile game advertisement this year

1 contract$0

Analysis

This prediction estimates a 9% chance that Beyoncé will appear in a mobile game advertisement before the end of 2026. The low probability reflects that celebrity mobile game endorsements, while not rare, involve specific alignment between a performer's brand, available opportunities, and business terms. Key factors include Beyoncé's historical selectivity in commercial partnerships, the typical lead time for major advertising campaigns, and competitive dynamics within the mobile gaming sector. With approximately six months remaining in 2026, any major announcement would likely have already been announced or be in advanced production stages. The market is pricing in low likelihood partly based on limited historical precedent and the absence of any announced partnerships as of mid-June 2026.

  • Beyoncé's track record shows selective commercial endorsements; fewer appearances in mobile game ads than mainstream celebrities like Shaq
  • Mobile game advertising budgets and campaign timelines typically require 3-6 months advance planning and announcement
  • Gaming industry spending on A-list celebrity partnerships has grown but remains concentrated among specific franchises
  • No announced partnership or leak as of June 2026 with six months remaining in the year suggests lower probability than if deals were in pipeline
  • Comparable artists (Dua Lipa at 7%, Jay-Z at 3%) trade at similarly low probabilities, indicating baseline skepticism across the cohort

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

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