SimpleFunctions
Winner-take-all · 6 outcomes6 contractsKalshirefreshed 11 min agoCloses Jan 1, 2027 · 243d

Will Musk have a net worth more than 1400 billion dollars before 2027

Leader sits at 82% across 6 bound outcomes, runner-up at 72%. This is a winner-take-all market — the headline is the leader’s price, not an arithmetic mean.

Leader probability

82%

More than $900 Billion

0¢runner-up 72¢leader 82¢

Outcomes

6

winner-take-all

Runner-up

72¢

More than $1 trillion

Spread

10pp

contested

24h volume

$4K

modest

Closes

Jan 1, 2027

243 days

Venue

Kalshi

6 bound

Top contract →Read as answer

30-day trend

0%50%100%-30d-3w-2w-1wtodayMore than $900 Billion: 83% (24 days, 23 points)More than $900 Billion: 83% on 2026-05-02More than $1 trillion: 72% (24 days, 23 points)More than $1 trillion: 72% on 2026-05-02More than $1.1 trillion: 52% (24 days, 24 points)More than $1.1 trillion: 52% on 2026-05-02
More than $900 Billion83¢More than $1 trillion72¢More than $1.1 trillion52¢
Top 3 candidates by current price · 24d

Bracket family

How the bracket ladder is priced.

Each row is one outcome on the venue. Sorted by 24h volume — the heaviest book is at the top.

Cluster 1

Will Musk have a net worth more than

6 contracts$4K
OutcomePrice24hVolumeVenueDetail

Will Musk have a net worth more than 1200 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1.2 trillion

KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1200

39¢+2pp$2KK→

Will Musk have a net worth more than 1100 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1.1 trillion

KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1100

55¢−1pp$2KK→

Will Musk have a net worth more than 1000 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1 trillion

KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1000

72¢±0$619K→

Will Musk have a net worth more than 1400 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1.4 trillion

KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1400

21¢−5pp$357K→

Will Musk have a net worth more than 1300 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $1.3 trillion

KXMUSKWEALTH-27-1300

28¢±0$0K→

Will Musk have a net worth more than 900 billion dollars before 2027?: More than $900 Billion

KXMUSKWEALTH-27-900

82¢+1pp$0K→

Analysis

This reflects market expectations that Elon Musk's net worth will exceed $1.4 trillion before January 2027—roughly 8 months away. The 82% probability reflects Tesla's stock price, which comprises the majority of Musk's wealth. Tesla's valuation depends on production targets, profitability reports, competition in electric vehicles, and macroeconomic conditions affecting tech stocks. The primary driver is Tesla's share price movement; a sustained rally would increase the probability of reaching $1.4 trillion, while a decline would lower it. Key upcoming catalysts include Tesla's quarterly earnings reports, delivery numbers, and announcements about new production facilities or product lines. Market participants are pricing in a relatively high probability, suggesting consensus belief that either current valuations will hold or increase through year-end 2026.

  • ›Tesla's stock price as of May 2026 and trajectory through December 2026, since equity value comprises Musk's primary wealth source
  • ›Tesla's quarterly earnings reports and delivery volume targets over the next 8 months, which directly influence investor confidence and valuation multiples
  • ›Broader tech sector and market conditions, including interest rate movements and economic growth expectations that affect high-growth stock valuations
  • ›Musk's personal stock transactions, including any major sales or acquisitions that would reduce or increase his net worth calculation
  • ›Competitive pressures in EV manufacturing and Tesla's market share retention relative to legacy automakers and new entrants through 2026

What moved the line

  • Apr 27More than $1 trillion↓17pp71→54¢ · Kalshi
  • Apr 28More than $1 trillion↑17pp54→71¢ · Kalshi
  • May 2More than $1.4 trillion↓5pp25→20¢ · Kalshi
  • May 1More than $1.2 trillion↑4pp39→43¢ · Kalshi
  • May 1More than $1 trillion↑4pp68→72¢ · Kalshi

Recently closed in general

These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.

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How we compute these odds

SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.

For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.

Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.

Last updated on this page: 11 min ago.

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