Will Luke Fenhaus be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion
Liquidity-weighted aggregate sits at 13% across 6 Kalshi contracts.
Implied probability
Kalshi
13%
6 contracts
Polymarket
—
not bound
Cross-venue gap
—
single venue
24h move
—
no pin
24h volume
$448
6 contracts
Closes
Nov 9, 2026
122 days
30-day trend
Bracket families
6 clusters across 6 contracts.
These contracts were grouped by title similarity. The headline aggregate combines all clusters; verify the cluster you actually need before quoting a number.
Cluster 1
Will Austin Hill be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion
Will Austin Hill be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion?: Austin Hill
KXNASCARAUTOPARTSSERIES-NAPS26-AHIL
Cluster 2
Will Justin Allgaier be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion
Cluster 3
Will Brent Crews be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion
Will Brent Crews be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion?: Brent Crews
KXNASCARAUTOPARTSSERIES-NAPS26-BCRE
Cluster 4
Will Corey Day be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion
Will Corey Day be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion?: Corey Day
KXNASCARAUTOPARTSSERIES-NAPS26-CDAY
Cluster 5
Will Garrett Smithley be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion
Cluster 6
Will Jeb Burton be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion
Will Jeb Burton be the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series Champion?: Jeb Burton
KXNASCARAUTOPARTSSERIES-NAPS26-JBUR
Analysis
Luke Fenhaus has a 9% probability of winning the NASCAR O'Reilly Auto Parts Series championship in 2026, meaning market participants view him as a moderate longshot compared to stronger favorites like Justin Allgaier (33%). The probability reflects expectations based on current performance metrics, season progression, and historical driver competitiveness in the series. Key drivers of this probability include Fenhaus's standing in the points table relative to frontrunners, his recent race results and consistency, and his equipment quality compared to championship-contending teams. The championship will be decided through the full 2026 season schedule, with the final races determining the title. Market odds typically shift following significant events like major race results, injury announcements, team changes, or substantial changes in points positioning. Fenhaus would need to either accumulate wins and consistent top finishes while competitors underperform, or maintain current momentum if he's already performing near market expectations.
- ›Fenhaus's current points standing and performance gap relative to Justin Allgaier and other top-probability contenders
- ›Recent race results and consistency trends indicating whether his performance is improving or declining through the 2026 season
- ›Quality and stability of his team equipment and sponsorship compared to championship-favorite teams
- ›Upcoming key races or playoff structure changes that could affect championship odds
- ›Historical win-loss records and head-to-head competitiveness data between Fenhaus and current series frontrunners
What moved the line
- Jul 6Justin Allgaier↑12pp30→42¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 4Brent Crews↓6pp12→6¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 6Brent Crews↑4pp6→10¢ · Kalshi
- Jul 4Justin Allgaier↓3pp33→30¢ · Kalshi
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These markets stopped trading. Last odds and any captured outcome are shown above — full settlement detail lives at the venue.
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How we compute these odds
SimpleFunctions aggregates live prediction-market contracts from Kalshi and Polymarket. Each slug groups contracts that resolve on the same underlying event, identified by venue event_id.
For binary slugs, the headline probability is the liquidity-weighted mid-price across all bound contracts. For multi-outcome slugs (e.g. elections with 3+ candidates), the headline is the leader’s price; we never arithmetically average disjoint outcomes — that would produce a number with no real-world meaning.
Snapshots refresh every 5 minutes during market hours; daily aggregates are computed at 04:00 UTC. The 30-day sparkline is drawn from per-ticker daily means stored in market_indicator_daily; 24h delta and movement events are derived from the same source.
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